The Third Base Situation
February 7, 2013 at 5:21 pm by Ben Duronio under Atlanta Braves
The Braves, having traded Martin Prado, are locked into Juan Francisco and/or Chris Johnson at third base. Each will be given an opportunity to win the starting role. The likelihood of either actually excelling in a full time gig is low, and the most likely end result is that the two share time at the hot corner. Since they are left-handed and right-handed at the plate, but career platoon splits suggest that both do much better against right-handed hitters than they do against southpaws. That is expceted out of Francisco, but the “reverse platoon split” from Johnson is at least a cause for concern.
First off, with Johnson’s splits, he stepped to the plate against southpaws under 400 times. That is a rather small sample size, so it is no certainty that he “can’t hit lefties.” Additionally, he did not have reverse platoon splits in the minors, so the historical trend of him struggling against left-handers is not there. Even if he is bad against lefties, he will still probably be better than Francisco. Regardless, I do not believe a straight platoon of hitting Francisco against righties and Johnson against lefties is the way to go.
Rather, I would look deeper into the opposing pitcher’s splits before setting the lineup every day. If the Braves are facing a lefty, such as Ricky Romero for instance, who relies on his changeup heavily and has reverse platoon splits for his career, starting Francisco could be the wise decision. Similarly, when the Braves face a righty or lefty who struggle against righties in particular, they should start Johnson. There are two sides to splits, and looking strictly at one side of them does not paint a full picture. With two players who have, in their very short sample sizes, performed similarly against both righties and lefties, looking at where the opposing pitcher thrives or struggles against is the likely wise way to attack the platoon.
While this is what I would do, I doubt it is what Fredi would do. Fredi, in my eyes, will ride whomever the “hot hand” is at the position. If Juan is hitting well, I expect Fredi to start him, and the same with Johnson. Each will have slumps throughout the season, so one of the more notable ways Fredi can help or hurt the team is in how he handles this platoon. While I don’t necessarily agree with riding the hot hand, since the theory itself is not one that has much backbone behind it, I do understand trying to mix and match over the course of the season to maximize the team’s value.
If he and the Braves really want to do this, they will look at the opposing pitchers and decide based off that. I would personally rather the Braves mix and match as I expect Fredi will than stick to a strict righty/lefty platoon. If one runs away with the job and excels, great. If they both struggle, at least the Braves have some cash to trade for a decent option over the course of the year. This is not the best situation by any means, but it is a situation in which the Braves have a number of options. When you do not have a set player at the position, having a decent amount of ways to go is the next best thing. If the Braves end up with 2.5 wins from third base, consider that a solid job by the GM and manager.
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Wren will almost certainly be trading for a 3rd baseman by the deadline, if not well before the deadline. Hopefully there are some salary dump candidates at 3B this year.
I don’t see how the Braves could trade for a 3B in the middle of the season. That is always a position that people need, but there is rarely anyone available.
Headley could be since he is a FA soon, but beyond that is it going to be the same old crap, Young, Polanco, or others.
If Juan starts to suck this year, Johnson will just play more and vice versa.
Since we are making bold predictions I would love to completely disagree with you. JuanFran is the everyday third basemen with CJohn providing relief and RHB PH. Better glove, younger, and has shown a lot of drive and initiative since being acquired last season not to mention decent peripherals when starting
Since when are we making bold predictions?
I think we’re making too much of Johnson’s incredibly small sample size against lefties. I believe you need at least 1000 plate appearances before you even weigh the player’s appearances equally with the standard platoon split. The odds are that Johnson hits lefties at least as well as he hits righties, if not better. That being said, I do agree that considering the opposing pitchers in addition to our hitters can add an additional element to the platoon.
Scratch that, it’s 2200 PA that it’s regressed against for a right handed batter against a left handed pitcher.
I do believe Francisco could stand out during the Spring. He has demonstarted a decent work ethic since being acquired here and from the sounds of it is doing whatever the teams asks him to do. I am not saying his range will blow us away but I think he will be lightly more agile with the 10-15 pounds it sounds like he has lost. We all know he has a solid arm for a 3B already too. Rumors are the Juan has looked pretty good against LHP in the winter leagues(granted yes he is at a higher level than a lot of them but maybe it gives him some sort of confidence entering the year).
Hello everyone I’m sorry for my bad English , I’m Juan Francisco cousin living in NYC and I can tell this .. The guy is a beast he just want to see more game give the guy a shot!!
We’ll see if Chipper gets an itch. I know it might be a long shot, but if he is sitting at home in May, and he sees a potential 95 win Braves team with a hole at third, then he might be tempted to pull a Brett Favre
yeah cause that worked out really well.
interesting…..ask Minnesota how it worked out, I think they were more than happy to have him play after he left the Jets.
uh…. favre took the vikings the nfc championship and lost to a team that was being paid to injure the opposing players.
Yeah it would be real awesome if Chipper Jones came out of retirement, had a falling out with the front office, was traded, had 1 mediocre season, signed with a division rival, put up huge numbers and took them to the world series, then hit .220 the next season and retired. Because that’s essentially what happened to Brett Favre if you’re a Packers fan. (Ben? your take?). Now, it breaks my heart that we’ll never see THE ALL TIME FACE OF THE BRAVES FRANCHISE play 3rd again, but let’s show him some respect and not put “Chipper Jones” and “pull a Brett Favre” in the same sentence ever again. Thank you.
I think that 3rd base is a much better situation the the one at 2nd. Juan showed good power last year in a very limited role and a couple of years ago was the Reds number 1 prospect. I expect Fredi to see what he can do early, granted he has a solid spring. Chris Johnson has had solid numbers so far in his career and I think he could be a solid guy in case Francisco doesn’t work out.
But I think the production out of 3rd will be better then that of 2nd base where Uggla has yet to show that he is worth the money that he was given a couple of years ago. I think if he starts of slow Wren could look to dump his salary and get a more tradition 2nd basemen that can play better defense and that will have much better contact, which we all know is something the Braves could desperately use. I look at a guy like Omar Infante, or maybe a guy like Neil Walker in the last year of his contract as possible targets that could provide a more consistent performance and free up a little money to continue to keep the Braves young core together.
Uggla was wroth 3.5 WAR last year and 2.5 WAR in 2011. He hasn’t been worth every penny he’s made, but he’s close.
He’s actually been worth slightly more than his contract to this point.
Chipper’s done. And I don’t think he’ll come back even if he gets the itch and we are struggling at 3B. Hopefully these guys will be able to perform and one of them steps up to be an above average 3B.
really interested in seeing how Juan in particular from last year to this year.
@BenDuronio (or anybody)
Where can one find MiLB splits? I was trying to look into Johnson’s odd reverse-platoon thing after the trade, but I couldn’t find anything that detailed. Thanks for the post.
The think the site that used to provide them for B-R shut their doors. I don’t know if there is a good resource for detailed MiLB stats anymore.
Ben, I understand your point, that the small sample size with Johnson should make us take his reverse splits with a grain of salt. But for the sake of discussion, I’m going to ignore that, and actually compound it by doing it with two players. I posted at the end of the last article the idea of Blake DeWitt, not as a bench/utility guy, but as the potential platoon partner with Juan. Johnson and DeWitt, with very similar sample sizes, have reverse splits. Here is the comparison of lines against lefties, which I repeat from my earlier post:
DeWitt: .290 .373 .440 .813
Johnson: .255 .294 .372 .667
Defensive metrics, Rtot/yr, Rdrs/yr, UZR/150, all at 3B:
DeWitt: +8, +5, +4.9
Johnson: -12, -17, -16.3
His overall numbers (against LHP and RHP) are lower in power than Johnson, higher in OBP. DeWitt’s glove at 3B is clearly superior, his glove at 2B is below average but not horrible, and he can cover LF. He was a 1st round pick in 2004, is 27 years old. Signed by Wren on 12/1/12.
There seem to be two positions we need to fill (1) bench utility guy and (2) potential platoon mate if Juan falters badly against lefties. DeWitt could fill both roles, perhaps better than Johnson in both spots. It could free up a spot on the 25 man for Fredi.
So, maybe the 8th spot in proposed lineups should read “Francisco/Johnson/DeWitt.”
I would truly welcome some feedback on problems with DeWitt that I don’t know about. Attitude issues? Injuries? Should he be considered as legitimate competition with Johnson for a platoon role? Nick replied to this idea with some good-humored derision, but maybe a larger “sample size” of feedback would be in order.
The idea of platooning two left handed batters in one position is certainly odd, but it looks right on paper.
I agree that DeWitt has been a good player who has been shortchanged in his career, and I’d be happy with him on the roster. But it’s more than just taking Chris Johnson’s platoon stats with a grain of salt. It is far, far more likely that he hits lefties better than he hits righties. And it is much more likely that DeWitt hits lefties worse than he hits righties. Both of those players have so few MLB plate appearances that you’d be better off ignoring them than taking them at face value. Reverse platoon splits are exceedingly rare. Don’t expect them to occur. Definitely don’t expect them to occur after a negligible amount of data.
Ben, I’m also interested in those minor league splits. “Minor Leauge Central” gives only 2011-12, at least that’s the way I read it.
minorleaguesplits.com has past data. For instance, in 2009 in the PCL he hit .303 against lefties.
Any high end triple slash or WAR that we could expect from this platoon?
Sam, I’m not sure if you mean Juan/Johnson, or Juan/DeWitt. Assuming a 70/30 split in playing time (Juan = 70%), and using their RHP/LHP career splits, here is what you get:
juan/dewitt .277 .336 .473 .809
juan/johnson .267 .312 .453 .765
If you use the cherry picked numbers I like for Juan, stripping out his atrocious pinch hit appearances, you get:
juan(no PH)/dewitt .301 .361 .518 .879
juan(no PH)/johnson .291 .337 .497 .834
If we get an .800 OPS out of the 8-hole, we will be neck and neck with the Nats.
I believe that Fransisco is set to have a monster year.
His averages and peripherals when he started the game last year were much better than his pinch hitting or late game replacement numbers
It takes some young players time to adjust to the major league level. Last year was a great experience because it showed Juan, his manager and his coaches exactly where he needed to improve in order to become a starting 3rd baseman.
He took these leassons and recommendations to heart and worked hard this offseason to implement the changes that he needed to make. I believe that we will see a new, improved Juan Fransisco this year.
On the other hand, Chris Johnson has started at the major league level and hit .281 That is nothing to criticise. His challenge comes defensively. I assume that he has been working like a dog to improve his defensive play all winter because ST will be a big opportunity for him.
Both players are young and have at least four years under team control to go. For all of the worrying, whining, negativism and hate by posters on the various Braves blogs surrounding these two players over the winter I believe that both have decent futures as starters and that the Braves 3rd base solutions will be a pleasant surprise to many fans this year.
I think the team realizes that the upside lies entirely within Francisco. If anything, we should be encouraged by CJ’s splits knowing that he CAN hit lefties, and is more than adequate against RHP as well. But Francisco COULD be huge, and CJ just kind of is who he is. I think Francisco, barring a terrible ST, will be given the inside track to the starting job at 3B. If he shows little or no improvement through the beginning of the season, CJ will start to make his way in a bit more, I think.
There is still untapped potential with Juan, and I think the Braves want to find out what they have.
How awesome would it be if the NL had a dh. Chipper could have played for at least 3 more seasons!
It would not be at all awesome if the NL had a DH.
herehere I second that!
I’m sure Wren has been in contact with the Blue Jays at some point during this off season, according to various reports, concerning Emilio Bonifacio. He sure would be a nice fit at third base and the lead off spot for the Braves this year. I have no idea if the Blue Jays ever made up their minds if they would trade him, but I would offer Eric O’Flaherty (maybe Venters instead) and either Juan Francisco or Chris Johnson and a decent prospect to acquire him. He, in my opinion, makes the everyday lineup complete at every spot in the order. Thoughts?
I like Bonifacio and think he would be a good fit but I wouldn’t give up any of the bullpen. The Braves have the best bullpen in the majors and they will need it if the young starting pitching doesn’t continue to progress. Also I think Bonifacio is a better fit at second given his low power numbers that aren’t ideal for a corner infielder. If Wren could give up Uggla, and maybe some young propects similar to those in the upton deal he should do it but I would try and keep Francisco and Johnson. Especially since Johnson is a capable back up for Freeman at 1st as well.
I’ll give you that but when you look at what this team needs, it’s not more power its contact. There is a lot of strikeouts in that line up and that needs to be fixed, and when you look at Uggla, the trade-off has always been you give up a lot of contact for alot of power. Which is ok when he hits 35 HRs but not when he hits around 20.
The lineup should fine, even with all the strikeouts. They will hurt a little, but their effect is really overstated.
http://capitolavenueclub.com/?p=8268
Reports over the winter did say we inquired about Bonifacio, but I think it was more for playing LF and leading off. His skill set would certainly be unique at 3B, and I’m not sure it would play well there, value wise.
I think we should go for broke and trade for Olt. Texas seems to be devaluing him a good bit, and they have Beltre under contract through 2015, with an option for 2016. Olt is 24 and they are going to either need to make a place for him soon, or trade him. I know they aren’t very high on Moreland at 1B, and I’m sure Olt could make that switch (UZR hates him there), but with Profar coming up, Kinsler may be making the move there, who they have locked up long term.
We would have to trade some good prospects, probably Graham (sell high!), and at least one major leaguer, possibly a bullpen guy. But if we have to part with EOF or Venters and replace them with Varvaro/Gearrin, that should make up for the upside and immediate talent that Olt could bring.
We’re certainly all spoiled when it comes to the 3B position. But I’d be willing to give Olt the time to show he could be the next long term guy at the hot corner, even if we sacrifice some lover leverage talent.
You just read my mind. If we need a midseason trade for a 3B I hope it is Olt. I’ve never been a believer in Bonifacio as a potential everyday player. He would be a good utility back up. However, I am not sure what it would take to get Olt and he would be unproven player who could fail for us as well.
I’m not sure we have the talent to give up that it would take to get Olt. From what I’ve heard (live in Dallas), they were hesitant to give him up in a deal for J. Upton (of course, that could be nonsense. Just what I’ve heard).
I would think that any deal for him would start with Tehran. Who knows, though.
It was a tricky situation. They asked for Simmons for Olt, to then flip Simmons for Upton. So basically:
Olt<Simmons<Upton -in the view of TEX. For ATL, it was:
OltUpton, since ARI asked for a Simmons for Upton trade, and we turned it down. I think it was clear TEX was just throwing spaghetti at the wall, though. They appear to be in a similar boat that ARI was in with Upton. They almost HAVE to move him, or receive nothing from him. So eventually, should the market dwindle, the Braves wouldn’t need to pay full value because of the market. The only thing is, there are few teams that have a 3B locked up, so I’d expect the market would be a big one for Olt.
Yeah I hope you’re right. But can’t they move Kinsler to the outfield and play Olt at first? Correct me if I’m wrong, but they’re not overloaded in the outfield, are they?
That second line didn’t come out right for some reason, but it was supposed to be
OltUpton
They have lots of players there, but they don’t exactly know what they have. I think they’re going to platoon Martin/Gentry in CF to start the year and see what they can get, and I guess Murphy is becoming a full-time guy. Cruz may be suspended, so they may be reluctant to move Olt now. By the way, I think Olt’s OF UZR was like -52 or something. Obviously a small sample, but it’s certainly discouraging if you’re the Rangers. I think they’re waiting to see what they have before anything crazy happens. I guess the Braves’ approach with Francisco is similar. So if it becomes a match somewhere mid-season, we’ll see what’s there.
What are the chances the Braves could sign Bourn with the agreement that we trade him plus a mid-level prospect to Texas for Olt? They’d keep their 1st round pick and the pool money and get Bourn for say, 4/$48M, plus a prospect. The Braves would give up their compensatory pick (with its pool money) and the aforementioned prospect, but we’d get a bona fide 3B prospect that’s near MLB ready.
I might be reading too much into the interview with Fredi that the AJC did (I don’t remember what reporter did the interview), but it didn’t sound like Fredi was sold on JuanFranc’s progres; particularly his physicial progress. I haven’t seen any pictures, does he actually look like he’s gotten into better shape (assuming any has seen pictures from his play this winter).
I don’t really see 3B as the biggest obstacle to the lineup this year. Chris Johnson is an established MLB 3B. We could do a lot worse than having him as the full time 3B. Fat Juan has some upside, and we’ll see in spring training what he can do. I’m guessing that one guy will eventually be given the position and the other guy will become trade bait.
Without Prado there’s a lot less flexibility with the bench. None of the bench infielders can really play in the outfield. So, I’m not sure if the Braves can really afford to keep both of these guys around long term since neither offers much in the way of defensive flexibility.
As the year wears on, I think the biggest concern with the lineup will be OBP, particularly at the top of the lineup. Given the current lineup, if the Braves are looking at add a prototypical #1 or #2 hitter, the odd man out is probably Uggla. 3B are scarce right now, and 3B who profile as high OBP table setter types are virtually non-existent. Its far more likely that the Braves would be able to find a reasonably priced high AVG, high OBP 2B.
“Quite frankly, I have not had the itch whatsoever,” Chipper Jones said. “I actually think it’s been nice to go through an offseason without having to schedule an hour-and-a-half workout into each and every day to get ready for Spring Training. That lets me know I made the right decision. I don’t have the urge to work at the game the way I used to.”
So I looking at some teams top 20 prospects(according to MLB.com) and was looking for potential 3B options via trade with teams who have 3B seemingly locked up at the ML level. These were what I found: Richie Shaffer(TB), Gabriel Rosa(CIN)(not exactly a given was just thinking of Todd Frazier), Matt Davidson(ARZ), and Jedd Gyorko(SD).
I don’t know, I think strikeouts can’t be overlooked, they are unproductive outs. Nothing positive can ever happen because of one. A ground ball can move a guy over or drive him in and the same can be said for a fly ball, but not a strikeout.
A ground ball can also cause a double play. Just ask Miguel Cabrera.
Yes it can but, if you put the ball in play muon have a chance to affect the game in a positive way. Whether that be getting on base, and RBI or moving the runner over. Productive at-bats win ball games… NOT strikeouts.
Yea, but here’s the problem…. Our guys strike out a lot but are still very productive. An out is an out is an out. If everyone was Mark Reynolds, that would be a different story. But some of our guys who strike out a lot are probably going to win an MVP award before their career is over.
Having a high strikeout lineup and no “true” lead-off hitter have to be some of the most overrated things in baseball. Some of the best players in baseball are high strikeout hitters and having a lineup filled with great power hitters with high strike-out rates would be far more productive than a one which has to have a Denard Span esque leadoff hitter. OBP is far more important at lead-off than speed. Those who want Bonifacio don’t know what makes a player valuable as he’s not a great defender and is not a great hitter. He just has speed. Freeman would be a better lead-off hitter than Bonifacio as he has a higher OBP and is a better overall hitter.
given that bourne is basically laying out there for us to grab…and nobody willing to give up the draft pick for him….I can’t say I’m loving the lack of contact hitters in our lineup AND the (sort of) hole at third.
Would have been better off keeping bourne and prado and 1 upton instead of both. They’re putting an awful lot of hope in either simmons being a stud at the top of the order or one of the 3 outfielders completely changing their habits. we went from being relatively light on power a few years ago to completely overcompensating. dan uggla is going to be hitting 7th in this lineup. and getting grossly overpaid to do so. would love to reverse that trade for infante right about now.
it’s going to suck when injuries happen and we don’t have that universal “best lineup based on offense” available because we HAVE to put someone in for defense instead of just moving prado to wherever we need him.
batting freeman leadoff just because he’s the best contact hitter of the bunch would hurt his development and ultimately the team. he’s 23 and looking like an absolute prototype 3/4 hitter for a permanent residency. they can go ahead and cue up the black sabboth as far as I can see. i would go simmons/heyward/freeman at the top and the rest is completely debatable.