The Only Real Worries With Heyward
February 18, 2013 at 1:09 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
Last year saw Jason Heyward get himself more or less completely back on track towards being the franchise cornerstone superstar we all thought he would be after his outstanding rookie season. He rebounded in virtually every traditional offensive category, and when you add in his superb baserunning and otherworldy fielding, he was a 6 win player overall.
However, I believe there are a few aspects of his game that are still a bit worrisome. I don’t think they’re things that can’t be overcome, after all he is just 23, and has more than held his own at the Major League level since he was 20 years old, an age when most players are in low A ball. But there are a couple things to be concerned about.
First, Jason still has the up and inside hole in his swing:
Here is his contact rate graph:
In play rates:
When he does put the ball in play, here’s his BABIP graph:
And here’s his in play ISO, to give a rough idea of how hard he hits the ball when in play:
As we can see, up and in Heyward: misses a lot (62% contact rate for a spot in the strike zone is REALLY bad), fouls the ball off a lot when he does make contact, and makes very weak contact when he does put the ball in play. Essentially, even last year, up and in was a “no danger” zone for pitchers.
Luckily for Heyward, pitchers are not used to pitching in the zone up and in. They mostly hate it, in fact. As we can see from the graph of where pitchers pitched to Heyward, even though they pitched him more up and in than a league average hitter, it wasn’t that much more, and pitchers still mostly attempted to pound low and away, as that’s their general strategy for every hitter:
Pitchers actually threw Heyward almost twice as many pitches on the lower, outer 1/9 of the zone as they did the up and in 1/9, which essentially reflects pitchers pitching to their comfort zone, rather than executing a plan to get Heyward out.
However, perhaps pitchers were a bit less worried about Heyward last year, after his offensively mediocre 2011, and were just less worried. Perhaps they will return to being very afraid of Heyward again this year and will again return to pounding him up and in.
Further, it was concerning that Heyward’s walk rate dropped last year, while his strikeout rate rose. Heyward was only in the 53rd percentile in walk rate last season (8.9%), while being in the bottom 26th percentile in strikeout rate (23.3%). As Andrew has pointed out, strikeout rate isn’t the be all and end all, but in certain ways, they can be alarming.
Essentially strikeouts aren’t as bad, if they’re a result of being patient and waiting for a pitch you can really drive. That is, sometimes if you take a couple of pitcher’s pitches, you end up in a hole, and strike out on a nasty 0-2 curveball. However, would you have really been any better off if you had simply made weak contact on the 0-1 pitchers pitch and grounded weakly to the second baseman? Not really, especially not if there was a man on first base, that led to a double play. However, strikeouts can be very concerning if they’re a result of a lot of swing and miss, and that’s where things are a tad bit worrisome with Heyward. last year Heyward was in the 20th percentile in swing and misses, when he swung and missed 27% of the time, compared to a league average of 21%. That’s troublesome to say the least. When a player swings, making contact is a good thing. Further, Heyward’s plate approach was a bit worrisome as well, when he was in the bottom 36th percent in swinging at fewest strikes in the zone (45.3%), but also in the bottom 33rd percent in swinging at balls out of the zone (30.7%). That’s a bit of a cocktail for worry, when combined. Heyward took more strikes, swung at more balls, and made less contact than a league average player. It’s not the strikeouts themselves that are worrisome, it’s what caused them that is worrisome.
Now, that all being said, Heyward more than made up for those deficiencies last year by absolutely destroying pitches over the entire lower 1/3, and everything over the middle, as we saw with his in play ISO graph. Further, like I’ve said, he’s still young, and as we saw with the pictures from spring training thus far, he’s actually still physically developing. A guy as big as Heyward will always have a little bit of trouble with the up and in pitch, but he can adjust and at least handle it. For now, it’s something that is concerning, but not something to freak out about. I would definitely like to see the return of his rookie season plate approach as well, when he swung at 42% of pitches in the zone, and only chased 22% of balls out of the zone (ie he only swung at slightly fewer strikes, and many fewer balls).
If Heyward can address these two issues this year, we could absolutely see him blossom into an MVP. If he can’t, he’ll probably ‘just’ remain very good.
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Wow. The taking strikes/swinging at balls ratios really jumped off the page. Great article.
The writer of this article is an idiot. ALL JASON HEYWARD DOES IS HIT!!!!!!
hahaha, well played sir!
Yeah, Franklin must have made up all those stats…what an idiot….lol @ Alex
its a sort of inside joke, referencing a commenter named Keith from a couple of weeks ago. Though it may be nearing time to retire the keith jokes, haha.
Gotcha, my badddd
Franklin, I’m worried…maybe we ought to consider a platoon with Constanza? I hear he is really fast…
I think a Gattis/Constanza platoon could probably combine for 40 HR/40 steals 120 runs 150 RBI. .300/.330/.570 triple slash.
That sounds pretty good…let’s do that.
I was wondering how long before the “this is why we should put Constanza in right” jokes started. Seriously though, this article actually made me feel very positive about Heyward (not that I didn’t already). I generally sort player weaknesses/limitations into two broad groups: (1) areas where a player may be limited based on talent; and (2) areas where a player may be limited based on development or needed adjustments. These issues obviously fall in the latter category. That, coupled with Heyward’s attitude and work ethic, makes me really bullish on his prospects for some MVP caliber seasons over the next several years.
Finally, the quality of the posts so far this year have been particularly outstanding. Really great information and writing. We know that you guys aren’t getting rich of this blog, so thanks much for doing it.
hmmmm. If I’m a hitter and pitchers are throwing 2 times the amount of pitches in low and away over up and in I don’t think my swing will be adjusted for the rare times where the ball goes up and in. I think I would focus on the low and away pitches. With that said, Heyward has long arms so the up and in pitches will always give him issues unless pitchers focus on the area and force him to adjust his swing; I don’t think he will have an issue doing this as he gets more experienced.
For most hitters, pitchers throw 2.5 to 3 times as many pitches low and away as up and in, and most hitters are still better at hitting up and in than low and away.
For Freddie Freeman, for example, pitchers throw three times as many low and away as up and in (7.4 v. 2.5), but that’s still Freddie’s second best zone (with his best being the dead over the middle zone).
Freeman’s up and in zone produces a .526 batting average and a .250 in play ISO. His low and away zone produces a .233 batting average and a .169 in play ISO.
Freeman just has a more solid swing than Heyward. His swing is more compact which allows him to get around on the up and in pitch without a major adjustment.
Which makes the strikeouts with Freeman even more of a concern than they are with Heyward. Freeman’s swing should lend it’s self to being a low strikeout player.
The thing that makes me optimistic is that he has shown in the past that his approach can be different. It’s not like he has always been a wild swinger. Perhaps the Parrish/Walker transition had something to do with it. Actually, completely off of observation, it seemed like the 2010 lineup was VERY patient. With Walker, the lineup seems more aggressive all around, peaking with Freddie Freeman. It’s at least a little encouraging to know that Heyward HAD an understanding of the strikezone, which shouldn’t come and go like contact rates do.
In relation to that point, it’s apparent that because of Heyward’s frame, he can reach pitches that are pretty far from his body. I think that’s where the inside pitch swing hole started. He was pretty close to the plate and had no chance inside. It’s hard to get arms that long inside a ball. This let him reach balls off the outside part of the plate, and occasionally hit them with power, but that isn’t necessarily a good thing. He now seems positioned a little further off the plate, which makes up for his inside pitch struggles at least a little bit. It should help him lay off the stuff away that he can reach, but shouldn’t swing at.
Even standing back a bit, he can reach the outside black, while making sure that his ‘swing hole’ is an area out of the strike zone. He would struggle with pitches low and away, but if a pitcher can stay there throughout an AB, you tip your cap and hope he misses to the next guy.
actually, if Heyward “must” have at least one ‘hole’ in his swing, you’d actually rather it be up and in as opposed to low and away, because even when that’s a hitter’s weak spot, pitchers still hate pitching up and in. It goes against everything pitchers have been taught from the time they were in high school. That’s part of why Heyward still managed to be so good last year, despite the fact he had a relatively large, well publicized hole in his swing, pitchers simply didn’t take advantage of that weakness all the time.
So, it will be interesting, you’d definitely like to see him with a little bit better coverage up there, but you absolutely don’t want that at the expense of low and away coverage, which is where pitchers want to live. If it’s impossible for Heyward to get full coverage on both sides, then you actually do prefer he have his hole up and in.
I understand that point, and it is amazing that it wasn’t exploited more than it was. But I know you’re aware of the K vs. bad contact point, as well. Although Heyward makes a lot of contact low and away, his ISO, BABIP, and in-play rates are not exactly stand out when he DOES make contact there. As a guy that hits in the heart of the order, and particularly a good Braves lineup, we should assume that he will be hitting with men on base a good bit.
I’m not necessarily suggesting that he fix the hole, but only place himself so that the hole is inside off the plate, and anything on the inner half is right where he wants it to be. If a pitcher is consistently throwing strikes low and away, you’re already dealing with the Roy Halladay’s of the world. His arms are long enough to where he can protect it with 2 strikes, but I don’t think he should concede up and in and instead attack low and away, where he is only more likely to fail. I’m just suggesting that he positions himself to where (zone) up and in is synonymous with (Heyward) up and over, and (Heyward) up and in is a ball that he can just take.
I agree somewhat, but I think it would be best if he could adjust that dependent on situation. If he moved much more away from the plate he’d A) be out of the batters box and B) he would start having a weak contact area on a decent chunk of the outside of the plate.
If you look at the in play ISO chart, if he were to shift everything over by one block, then his hole would now be off the plate inside, but he’d also create three new holes on the outer third of the plate that he’s just as bad, if not worse.
I’m not sure of the exact rule, but I don’t think the batter’s box is all too binding, but more a suggestion. Hitters generally scuff out the back of the box and keep a foot behind it to get more time to see a pitch. If Jason were to have a heel outside the box, I don’t think they’d call him out. It’s not his fault he’s massive.
And his outside, off the plate numbers aren’t terribly different from his outside, over the plate numbers. Sure, you’d be making at least SOME concessions in relation to the outer half, but what would you rather have? Looks like a lot of black, with only the low and away, off the plate area being a cold zone, which is not something you would want to offer at anyways. Most of this is dependent on him regaining a patient approach, so all of it is hypothetical. But for a selective hitter, I would rather have them capitalize inside than merely get by outside. If you can find a single player of decent quality that has a high BABIP low and away, it would MAYBE be Barry Bonds. Not even Griffey, whose swing could cover Texas, did well down there. I’d rather he just let them go, and punish mistakes inside.
This gets a lot more hairy when you throw in his struggles against lefties, and making those low and away pitches tougher to see. But patient hitters don’t swing at pitches low and away, even if they are strikes. The best pitchers in the world can’t stay down there throughout 3 PAs for one player. It would serve Heyward well to become more selective with such a powerful swing. Plus with his base stealing speed finally playing, he could afford to walk more than 9% of the time.
That said, I don’t really care what he does. He’s awesome regardless.
my biggest issue with him moving even further away in the batters box is that it would push his down and in zone, one of his best zones, off the plate. And now, his outside edge of the plate numbers, which, as you noted, aren’t great would then move to the heart of the plate.
That’s from a side that can be quantified rather than just being baffled at why pitchers won’t throw there. You can kind of understand why, but it really doesn’t make sense. Not that I have any problem with it…
The “up and in hole” is also a better hole based on where pitchers will tend to miss (which is why they don’t like to go there). Down and away they will miss most often further off the plate. Up and in they will either hit the batter (which hopefully doesn’t happen a whole lot) or leave too much of the ball out over the plate when they miss.
Whoever said Gattis and Constanza would go for 40/40 shoot yourself. You don’t watch minor league baseball your going off stats and what you hear. Gattis swing is long. Always has been. In this division where pitching is rich and in this stadium he will not hit 30 homeruns and if your implying Constanza has the ability to steal 30-40 bags may I point out his success rate is mediocre at best. And Heyward saves multiple runs with his defense and is a natural in Right Field. Please don’t add comments to a subject when they make 0 sense.
it was sarcasm.
This article makes me feel better about Heyward. I mean if he is going to have a week spot, at least it is where pitchers are most reluctant to throw it. It makes it the opposite of an old school Andruw Jones strike out. Also, if I hear/read one more article about Chipper coming back I feel like I am going to scream. Thanks for not buying into the hype CAC.
I’m really, really annoyed that there are more pictures of Chipper holding a fungo bat than the vast majority of our actual players.
And in Breaking News: Chipper says in interview “contrary to popular belief I am in no hurry to stick needles in my knees every day just to be able to walk down the street.”
He didn’t really say that, but it seems to be the gist of every article that brings up a comeback in the first place.
I like Bowman alright but he writes the same damn thing OVER AND OVER again. Every other story last year started out by referencing the 2011 collapse. Mark my works–no pun intended–at least a third of Bowman’s stories this year will be prefaced by a Chipper paragraph.
I completely agree. I’m sick of hearing about Chipper coming back. He’s not Brett Favre or Michael Jordan. He’s not coming. I don’t know where people ever got the nerve to ever put Chipper in the same group as those guys. Chipper never once said he was retiring and until last year and then he did. Every year Brett Favre after the Packers final game of the season would cry and say he was retiring and then he never did. How Chipper is anything like that I’ll never know.
I was happy to see some Braves spring highlights on my local FOX news station tonight and not see Chipper in the highlights. They should Medlen and Hudson doing PFP and Heyward and The Upton’s hitting.
good article. i love these hitter evals. it helps me know what to look for when da bravos are at bat. on an unrelated topic, does anyone know of a link to watch the up coming ST games?
Another poster said it well–based on Heyward’s rookie year, we know that at some point he DID have a good sense of the strike zone. We just need to hope he can find it again.
Heyward regressed on that level last year, according to the handy charts and numbers provided with this article. Still, that was just about the only area he regressed while his power, defense and baserunning improved. I don’t think we have seen even close to what Jason is capable of doing.
I’m with the author. If Heyward can fix this relatively fixable problem, he can be an MVP caliber player.
yeah, I absolutely think Jason CAN produce a 10 win season. I’d put it maybe like 40% likelihood that he does. But its certainly on the table.
The quality of posts on this blog is tremendous. Keep up the good work all of you. Really good stuff.
Heyward’s numbers from June through August were off the charts.
334 PA, 303 AB, 53 R, 89 H, 17 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 46 RBI, 29 BB, 83 SO.
If I did my math right that’s a slash line of .294/.353/.541 with an OPS of .894.
The real concern for Heyward is the watches, cars, and clothes that he’s gonna buy this year since Bourn is gone