Craig Kimbrel Tries to Pitch to Contact
March 1, 2013 at 10:00 am by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
… but the hitters just can’t hit it. For Kimbrel’s career, he’s struck out 45% of the batters he’s faced, and he went on to strike out 50% of batters in 2012. In terms of per 9 rates, he’s struck out 16 per 9 in his career and a little over 16.6 last season. Kimbrel is known for his ability to strike hitters out. So what am I getting at?
Look at his pitch frequency map for 2011-2012.
The white spot is where his pitches are really concentrated (it’s hard to see on this chart as opposed to the one that’s in the system; sorry, I can’t get you that one for some reason). You’ll notice it’s concentrated right down the middle. What about each pitch? Certainly, he doesn’t throw both his fastball and his slider there.
Looking at each pitch, his fastball primarily resides there, and considering he throws 70% fastballs, that’s a lot of pitches right down the chute. Regarding his slider, Kimbrel throws it middle-down for strikes, and he tosses it below the zone (probably) for strike three. But what about 2010?
We see a little difference here, but to be completely honest, the difference in locations can be simply because he only threw about 20 innings that season. But it could also be a change in strategy. Kimbrel never had great control before 2011. It was actually the main concern about Kimbrel when he arrived. When he arrived in 2010, he still had problems with his control, posting a walk rate of 18.5%, but all of a sudden in 2011 and 2012, he posts walk rates of 10.5% and 6% (average is about 9% for RP). The question is why.
One reason is that he simply got better. It makes sense considering he’ll be 25 this year, and with more innings under his belt, his control should improve. The second option is that he just started throwing the ball down the middle. Screw messing around with up-down, in-out. Just throw your 80 fastball and 80 slider right down the frackin’ middle and see if they can hit it. If you’re always aiming for the middle, you’re going to walk fewer hitters. Minnesota Twins pitchers can’t do it without getting killed, but Kimbrel can. Once the hitters get behind in the count, Kimbrel can do whatever he wants. What about other closers?
You should see a few things. One, Rivera stays only on the corners and has impeccable command. Kimbrel may have found some control, but he doesn’t have command (or else he’d stay at the corners, too). Two, the concentrations of the other pitchers are little larger than that of Kimbrel’s, but because they aren’t THAT different, it seems like most closers let their stuff do the talking. Looking at Jason Motte and Aroldis Chapman …
They’re also pretty similar. Rare back and fire. While most closers seem to have ideas of letting their stuff do the work, Kimbrel is extraordinarily good at it, and the most heartening thing about this is that it makes Kimbrel’s control more sustainable. I had worried about it regressing, but if he’s basically grooving it down the middle and letting it ride, I’m not as worried. It also helps that he’s done it two years running (and improved), but it seems to be a plausible reason for why his control has improved. It’s just fascinating to me that it actually works.
Just for giggles, this is how the other main cogs in the bullpen look.
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I’ll definitely have to try and pay attention to this more in 2013. I think when I watched him last year, I was just amazed at his stuff and how silly the hitters looked that I didn’t pay that much attention to whether it was down the pipe or not.
It’s one of the reasons I think he performs poorly in ST. The stuff isn’t quite there, so he tends to get hit around a bit more.
I wish there were heat maps for chicks
Pretty sure the heat map would be very TIGHT location…
I’m not sure I know what this means, but I’ll remain cheerfully ignorant, thanks. But can we stick to baseball and cut the frat-boy crap, please?
What? There’s these things called ‘jokes’, implemented in the general scope of ‘humor’.
Humor just escapes some people, I guess.
Well, a) it isn’t funny, and b) dumb, frat-boy jokes make the blog a less welcoming place for people who come to discuss Braves baseball.
get a grip anon21
Thanks for having my back, Anon21
Seriously though, it’s a joke. People are allowed to make jokes. I’m pretty sure you both will be okay. Bigger things in life to worry about.
this is over, now.
Ok, I’m done. :)
Believe it or not, some women read this site, and would rather read & talk about baseball rather than this stuff.
let’s move along guys.
This is why relievers are so volatile. They aren’t pitchers so much as they just grip it and rip it. One day Kimbrel isn’t going to have the 97 mph heat anymore and he’s going to get smashed. Heck, you saw it last year with Paps. Hopefully for the Braves that day is a long time coming and it’s not at the beginning of a four or five year contract.
It is certainly a concern. I would think that Kimbrel’s command could and should improve with time, and if it does, increased command could help off-set any loss of stuff. But it is something to wonder about.
I wonder what Billy Wagners heat maps looked like?
Who is Paps? Papelbon? He didn’t have a sub-2 FIP like he did in 2011 but 2.89 is hardly getting smashed.
Kimbrel can get away with this on his fastball because it’s unlike many other fastballs in the league. The way he throws it and puts so much torque on the release, the ball is giving the illusion that it’s rising; a “riding” fastball.
It’s why you see so many hitters swing completely under his fastball missing it even when it’s at the knees.
Curt Schilling had the same type of fastball. It’s a strikeout heavy pitch, but it’s also prone to giving up some homeruns. The ace in the hole that Kimbrel possesses is that slider.
I’d love to see a Blaine Boyer heat map, circa 2008. Never seen a guy last so long in the big leagues just throwing fastballs down the middle.
Would someone be able to give me a layman’s explanation of command vs. control?
I have been under the impression that control is the ability to locate and throw the ball WHERE you want, and that command was the ability to properly execute a pitch, such as getting the break on a curveball rather than to leave it hanging; HOW to throw the pitch I guess. After reading their uses in the past couple months I feel like I’m wrong. Anyone?
control is more the ability to throw strikes when you want. Command is ability to spot the ball in particular spots you want.
Thank you, Franklin.
Very good analysis… I’ve been a little concerned about his command for a while, with this being his 3rd year I hope he gets it together.
At least, I hope he doesn’t lose it before 2015 (when he may get traded)
I know the Nationals are fielding the semi scrub team tonight but 5 Ks and 1 hit (hr) wasn’t so bad for Julio.
I don’t think it’s just an ” optical illusion” that Kimbrel’s fastball has movement on it. It’s harder to see when you are at the game in person, because you aren’t going to have a good angle unless you set up a lawn chair behind second base, and security always gives me a hard time when I try to do that. However, on TV you can see it go up as it crosses the plate.
Hitting a 100 MPH fastball is pretty tough even if it is straight as an arrow. But a triple digit heater with even a couple of inches of movement is just about impossible to hit even for the best hitters.
To me, when Kimbrel turned the corner is when he developed the ability to throw his slider for strikes. Call it control, command or a little of both, but he seems to have really improved in that area.
As long as his arm holds up, I don’t see any reason to doubt that Kimbrel will continue to dominate.
it definitely doesn’t go up as it crosses the plate, it just looks like it because almost every other pitch drops a lot more.
Interesting Franklin. Maybe it’s just the camera angle, or maybe I’m just expecting it to drop more, like you say.
Is it literally physically impossible for a pitch to go up, or are you just saying Kimbrel’s doesn’t? Seems like I’ve seen knuckleballs break in every possible direction.
I believe it has been calculated that you’d have to throw it something like 400-ish MPH with a few thousand RPMS of spin, in order to start at a downward plane and then rise.
And it obviously starts on a downward plane, since the mound is like 2 feet tall, and the ball doesn’t sail over the backstop.
If you watch pitch F/X, most pitches are declining at something like a 20 degree angle by the time the reach the plate.
Glad to see Heyward working on his bunting today. He’s going to be doing a lot of that batting 2nd.
I would love to see what happens if Heyward just kept ‘missing’ the bunt sign.
agree…. bunting wastes his value
Yeah–I meant, would Fredi bench him? Yank him for the rest of that game? Fine him? Trade him?
What do you do with a star player who ‘misses’ signs?
Really makes you appreciate Mariano… What command…
Can we get an official transcript of the Heyward / Coach Ben tweets for the archives? #BestofCAC #bloopers
Great idea, but Coach Ben is probably too busy getting up bright and early for practice to put the transcript together.
Idea for an article:
I would like to see a realistic projection for Freeman as a bunch of otherwise smart fans are starting to throw the word “elite” around and projecting him for a .230 ISO and .900 OPS and I just don’t see it.
I see him as topping out as a 2nd tier .850 OPS , 4 win 1ST baseman, which is damn good btw!!! But there were only 20 guys with .230 ISO or great last season, and I just don;t see Freddie as cracking that list. Maybe his “career year” but not on a consistent “this is who he is” type basis.
Mark/Franklin, first off, really solid post. With respect to the discussion re: command, I’d be curious to see heat maps for Mo Rivera over the 15 years or so. Did his command improve over time, or was he always able to locate? Just curious whether it is realistic to expect Kimbrel to have his command improve, or continue to improve, along with his control. That map may also be relevant for the “hold tight or sell high” trade analysis on Kimbrel that you posted about a few weeks back.
Just curious. Thanks!
It doesn’t want to let me reply to Franklin’s reply, but I just wanted to thank him for the wonky geek science explanation of why pitches don’t rise. I mean that in the best possible way. As you said, it must be that you are expecting them to sink more, so when they are more flat, it looks like they are rising.
You learn something new every day….
I’m not usually into the posts with charts but this was a really good one.