Kris Medlen And Increased Workload Concerns
March 4, 2013 at 9:00 am by Andrew Sisson under Atlanta Braves
There seem to be two main questions when discussing Kris Medlen in 2013, how much of last season’s success can he repeat and can he hold up for a full-season workload. I’ll start off by saying neither of these questions can be answered with much certainty since there is still a bit of an unknown with Medlen given his small body of work. A couple of weeks ago, Mark looked at Medlen and why he is so effective pitching to contact. Today, I wanted to look at some reasons why I think Medlen will be okay handling the increase in innings this season.
Last season was the first time in his professional career that he has thrown 150+ innings, and he JUST reached that level (including his Triple-A innings). Even with the safety net of a great bullpen, I think it will be very important for him to be an “innings eater” this season after taking into account the looming question marks with the rest of the rotation. Here are my three biggest reasons.
1. Never given the chance
Coming up through the minor leagues, Medlen was constantly flipped back and forth between starting and relieving. His appearances were split 25%/75% between starting and relieving in the minors. His proportion of starts to relief appearances with his time in Atlanta have actually been the exact same, 30 starts and 90 relief appearances. As we’ve seen, he has proven to be successful in either role, but because of this dual effectiveness, the Braves have bounced him back and forth for whichever role presently fit best.
I think it is fair to say that just because he has never been given the chance to prove he can handle a large inning total, doesn’t mean he can’t.
2. No restrictions from TJ
This in a way builds off of the previous point. As you probably know, Medlen had Tommy John surgery in August of 2010. It forced him to miss all of the 2011 season except for throwing a couple of innings in the final weeks of September. Heading in 2012, the Braves decided to place Medlen in the bullpen even though many felt he would provide more value in a starters role. While that thought process is true, organizations like to ease their pitchers back from TJ surgery, which is exactly what the Braves appeared to do. It wasn’t until later in the season, when he started being compared to side by side with fellow August 2010 Tommy John-er, Stephen Strasburg, that many began to uncover this as a possible explanation. Whether the move to stick him in the bullpen at the beginning of the season was intended to keep his innings down following surgery or not, it worked out in the teams favor. Heading into the season he will have no limitations or restrictions in 2013.
Pre-surgery, some questioned his durability as a starter and whether or not his arm would be able hold up. From what I’ve been able to find, that is really the only injury he has ever suffered. Seeing as close to three-quarters of pitchers come back as strong or stronger, there is reason to believe Medlen’s should be able to hold up now that he has physically matured at age 27. Of course, there is always injury risk with throwing a baseball 90+ MPH, but considering he has fairly sound mechanics, there doesn’t seem to be much added risk (see: Hanson, Tommy).
3. Efficient
Personally, one of my favorite parts about Kris Medlen is how efficient he is on the mound; it makes him a pleasure to watch. He attacks the hitter and will throw any pitch in almost any situation, which often results in him get ahead in the count. It is pretty rare to see him go to a three ball count. By putting hitters into unfavorable counts,aided by his stellar command, it puts him in the driver’s seat and helps induce weak contact.
We can look at Medlen compared to the league average starter last season with pitches thrown. Looking at pitches per inning, Medlen (13.65) had thrown about 15% fewer P/IP than the league average starter (16.11) in 2012. He also managed to face each batter with about 4.5% fewer P/PA than a league average starter.
While both of those are very impressive, each will likely regress closer to league average over a full season, but he still should remain pretty darn efficient. As I mentioned, he rarely gets himself into deep counts that eat up pitches, which allows him to go deeper into games. Last season he threw 6+ innings in 10 of his 12 starts of the season (first 2 starts he was still being eased into role). Another factor that comes into play is that hitters generally become more comfortable facing a pitcher the second or third time through the order. If Medlen is able to work through the order quickly early on, without showcasing all his pitches, he will be more effective late in games because hitters will be seeing pitches they may have not seen much of in their first couple trips to the plate. The way in which Medlen attacks hitters allows him to be effective, yet efficient.
Having success on the mound should leave him with a high inning total at season’s end. Innings pitched and pitching success do commonly correlate, but the success is what leads to higher inning totals. That being said, I’m on the record saying that I think Medlen will have a successful year. The CAC projected aggregate fWAR for him was a tick above 4. If it’s worth anything, the average starter who finished between 3.5 and 4.5 fWAR last season averaged 31 starts and exactly 200 innings.
There is definitely still some alarm given the fact that he has never started 30+ games in a season, but just because he’s never done it, doesn’t mean he can’t. I don’t think health should be an issue aside from the general risk that comes along with repetitively pitching a baseball. The concerns are completely understandable, and maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I think these reasons suggest he should be able to handle an increased workload. If I had to handicap which pitcher is most likely to reach the 200 IP mark, I would probably give Medlen a slight edge over Minor. Having him develop into the top of the rotation pitcher would be very encouraging for a rotation which contains it’s fair share of concerns.
Loading ...
Any chance they have him skip a start every once in a while? Do any of you guys know the Braves management’s views on the Verducci effect?
they’re not believers in the verducci effect from what I’ve heard. They more base decisions on watching the pitcher’s mechanics for signs of fatigue or injury.
If Teheran pitches well this season, and the rotation is fortunate enough to avoid significant injury, Beachy’s return could provide a lot of options. Perhaps having Teheran moved to the bullpen and making spot starts for Medlen and Hudson, who figure to be the biggest risks. Perhaps a system that would allow Teheran to start for Medlen in one week, and Hudson the next, while pitching somewhat regularly himself. I don’t imagine this would be necessary, though, until sometime late in the season. Didn’t the Braves use a 6 man rotation at some point last season to kind of nurse Sheets and Hanson?
I know they talked about a six man rotation, but I think someone got hurt before it went into effect (sheets maybe).
If the rotation is healthy and performing adequately in all 5 spots, I have a hard time seeing the Braves insert Beachy directly into a starting role considering how “successful” they were in their handling of Medlen. If anyone hits the bullpen–at least for a month–it’ll be Beachy.
I put successful in quotes because I think the handling of Medlen’s return had more to do with circumstance than an actual plan. But once he was thriving as a starter the Bowman stories of how Wren had planned it all along began to appear. Which was funny because it was basically an indirect pointing-of-the-finger / bragging display by Wren at Rizzo and the Nationals.
I actually saw stories at DOB posted back in March and April last year talking about Medlen’s innings limit and the plan to use him in the pen for the first part of the season.
I would be willing to bet by the time Beachy is ready to come back the Braves would “need” him, for one reason or another, more so than having to decide who to remove.
Hopefully we will have resigned Livan by that point. Let Beachy eaaaaase back in.
For now I’d still like to see Hudson at the top of the rotation, followed by Kris and Mike. Taking the pressure off of Medlen could go a long way towards maximizing his efforts in 2013. If Beachy can come back healthy and effective after the All-Star break then I’d point to that time as the perfect moment to transition Kris to the #1 spot. Then the Braves can make a post season run with arguably three top of the rotation pitchers (Medlen, Beachy, and Hudson) and 2 very good lefties.
I think the order of the starters in the rotation is a pretty arbitrary factor past the first game of the season. It’s not like a batting order.
Yeah, the “Opening Day starter” thing is basically meaningless. As to which pitcher gets presented as the ace of staff, that has more to do with the media (which feeds off the pitcher’s performance or perceived performance) than with any statements from team officials. The only time it matters much is in the postseason, when the team’s determination as to who they want to throw twice in a short series or three times in a 7-game series can have an appreciable impact on the team’s chances.
Exactly. It’s not like the #1 guy in the rotation is going to face off with every team’s best pitcher. I think Minor opposed more aces than Hudson last season. It’s all timing.
Not to mention, an assumed mounting of ‘pressure’ should not influence a player’s talent.
The problem I see with Medlen this year (“problem” may be the wrong word) is that he relies on location and fringe velocity. He only made 12 starts last year, which is basically 1/3 of a season’s worth for a typical starter. When he wears down, even just a little, he is going to lose a tick of velocity and probably get shelled out there. If his command suffers even the least bit, it is going to get ugly.
I hope I’m wrong, but I expect Medlen to have a significantly worse season tham most Braves fans hope. I’m guessing an ERA in the 3.8-4.0 range over 180+ innings, which is good, but not “Ace” level.
I expect Minor to be the best pitcher on the staff by the end of the year with Beachy also in the discussion.
Velocity matters much less when you have good control and a good changeup. it’s all a matter of change of speed rather than what the speed was to begin with.
a 89mph fastball with an 80 mph change is just as effective as a 95 mph fb with an 87 mph change. you team that up with solid ability to locate pitches and he should be good.
I expect him to be between 2.8 and 3.1 ERA/FIP this year
^ this
Yeah, his command, pitch sequencing, and movement on all pitches I think will keep him well above water.
You’re also wrong about velocity. Pitchers velocity usually increases as the season goes on, not decrease.
I think medlen will be fine, he may regress a tad from last year, but that is to be expected with the second half he had.
From everything I have read, our starting pitching is our weakness this year, and that is only if the underperform or we have injury problems.
I do think it is an area for concern, but could also be an area of growth if we over perform, IE minor and medlen continue their respective runs. It will be an interesting year.
While the rotation is far from certain, I think it is more a case of being weaker than a weakness. The lineup is great. The bullpen is great. Just because one area is behind the other two, I think it says more for the ability of the other units than it does for a lack in rotation ability.
he’ll finish 14-9 with a 2.88 era. at’ll do.
Anyone catch Fredi citing the Bill James Handbook during yesterday’s game? I didn’t notice the context but he did bring it up and then said a few surprisingly sensible things afterwards. My horrible memory is preventing me from remembering.
I didn’t happen to see it, when was it during the game? I’ll go back and check it out.
He was talking about the value of an out, specifically about strikeouts and why they aren’t worried about it. That’s what he cited from the Bill James book.
Yeah I remember hearing about that during the broadcast. I saw on Twitter a couple weeks ago someone posted (think it was Buster Olney) that Fredi had attended a SABR get together and because a SABR member. Sounds like Fredi is doing what is necessary of him to become a better manager which is all we can ask. And I personally thought Fredi improved a lot last season in his in game decisions as opposed to 2011. Let’s just hope he continues to improve as a manager.
On an aside… Just noticed Reed’s picture this year on MLB.com. I know he’s always had the wannabe goatee that doubles more as a ginormus shit stain on his chin, but it seems far worse this year.
Anyway we can persuade one of the guys on the team to get him shit-face drunk and shave it off when he passes out??
Pretty sure he hasn’t had that all spring training.
I’d be more worried about Medlen’s durability if he needed to air it out at 99 MPH to be effective, but he doesn’t. Throwing 90 pitch complete games by pitching to contact without ever throwing more than 92 MPH doesn’t put as much wear and tear on your arm. I know it’s easy to get carried away with the Maddux comparisons, but let’s just say it’s a good goal for Medlen to strive for.
I’m more worried about Beachy, a strikeout pitcher who always seemed to run up astronomical pitch counts, coming back from Tommy John. If we really need him to start when he comes back, and he goes right back to throwing 115 pitches in 6 innings, I worry that his arm won’t be able to take the strain.
I think Beachy did a pretty good job of that last season. He sacrificed some velocity for more control and was able to go deeper into counts. I could be wrong, but I remember the game when he blew out his elbow he had pitched a perfect game though 6 innings.