Freeman’s Shrinkage
March 5, 2013 at 10:00 am by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
I have an unhealthy fascination with Freddie Freeman. I’m not entirely sure why, but I think it has to do with his days as a prospect. While Jason Heyward was heralded from every mountain, Freeman wasn’t quite a Golden Boy. Don’t misunderstand me. He was still heralded. But there was this skepticism that surrounded him – he can hit but how much, he’s got some power but how much, and will all of that make him an average first baseman or can he be a star. It’s not exactly an insult to be called a league-average first baseman, but we, of course, hope for a star. This unhealthy obsession led to possibly unwarranted optimism, and that led to making an ill-advised bet with a friend over whether Freeman would hit 40+ HR in a season. Dan Szymborski made me a feel a little bit better about that bet by saying it was more likely than not that Freeman would hit 40+ bombs in a season, and I think there’s reason for the optimism.
During Freeman’s first two seasons, he’s been what many said he’d be – league-average. Over the past two seasons, the average first baseman has hit .260/.335/.440 with a wOBA of .335 and wRC+ of 110. Freeman’s career numbers? .269/.340/.449 with a .343 wOBA and a wRC+ of 115. Freeman’s been a bit better than the league-average first sacker, but for all intents and purposes, Freeman has been average. Looking at the rest of the package, Freeman’s defense hasn’t really been lauded (mainly due to his range), but even if we wanted to give him some credit on defense, his total lack of speed and baserunning value would counteract that. He’s been average. There is no shame in that – in being a 22, 23-year old manchild that is an average player at the major-league level. But seeing as he is such a young player, can he improve, and has he shown an ability to improve?
Here are Freeman’s stats over his first two full seasons.
If you look strictly at Freeman’s slash line, he hasn’t changed, but a more detailed look reveals more. The first step is looking at Freeman’s BABiP. It dropped a full 40 points from 2011 to 2012, and considering his LD rates are higher than the average first baseman who has a .295 BABiP, I’d bet his talent BABiP is probably somewhere at least in the middle of those numbers, meaning his slash line coulda/shoulda/woulda been better.
The next step is looking at some peripheral numbers. You’ll notice that Freeman’s K and BB rates are going in right direction. His strikeout rate went down 10% and his walk rate went up 25%, and he swung at fewer pitches out of the zone while swinging at more in the zone, indicating his plate discipline got better. Looking at the heat maps (you didn’t think you would get away with not having heat maps, did you?) …
Freeman’s strike zone discipline has improved. The map has shrunk with the exception of pitches below the zone. On fastballs …
His zone has also shrunk. On off-speed pitches …
The zone has also shrunk, though he’s still susceptible to pitches below the zone. As one might expect from a young player, Freeman’s plate discipline has improved. What about doing damage in the zone?
Which of the two years more closely resemble each other? 2012, of course. Freeman seemed to realize, like many left-handers, that his sweet spot is low-and-in, and he focused on swinging at pitches in that area, doing damage in that area while raising his ISO 30 points and almost 20%. You can’t argue with the effectiveness.
The question now is what happens next. Freeman undoubtedly made strides this past season, but can he keep it up? Can he even improve more? The projection systems seem to think so. All of them see a 10 point jump in wOBA due to a BABiP rebound and an ever-so-slight increase in ISO. Freeman will be 23 for most of next season, and as a young player with established success in the majors, we should expect him to continue to improve. But players’ productions don’t go as smoothly as aging curves suggest. By the time all is said and done, I expect Freeman to end up an above-average first baseman, but whether or not that will happen in 2013 is still to be determined …
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Thanks for the Freeman article I asked about!!! lol
My biggest beef is that there are some fans who have gotten it in their heads that he will improve to a .230 ISO .900OPS guy and that’ll be what he is.
I could see him hitting that during his “career year” maybe, but I find it unrealistic to project him out to be anything more than a .830-.850 OPS guy with a .190-.200 ISO.
and that might be optimistic.
Once I was able to move past the title of the article, at least in the Seinfeldian sense…
I never thought of Freeman as a 40 HR guy. Maybe in one season he could hit somewhere right at 40, but his swing just seems so line drive oriented (and I guess the same was said about Heyward). I still don’t really understand it. I’ll see FF swing and find myself confused as to what had just happened. I really think they need to extend the net on the right side of the field to protect against FF foul screamers.
His FB% did raise from 2011, but how far is he from his plateau in that regard upon assessment of his swing? And what do you think his ISO ceiling is?
I don’t think Freddie’s swing is all that “level”. I mean, it is conducive to line drives, but he’s shown the ability to hit for power. My theory is that his power (due to his body and bat speed) have a chance to really blossom in-game because he’s already a pretty good hitter. In many ways, he’s still learning to hit, and I think as he gets better at pitch recognition and recognizing which pitches he can drive he can boost his ISO into the low-to-mid .200s.
He was more valuable last season while having several nagging little injuries, eye issues etc. I don’t think he’s going to be Pujols or anything, but all the progress from 2011 to 2012 is pretty encouraging. I also don’t think I’ve seen another player hit the majority of his home runs to straightaway center. He’s a brute.
Not really sure Freeman will ever hit .900, .220 ISO, even in a career year, but it is possible I suppose. He got better last year, even through the injuries, but I do feel that he’s nearing his peak. .275 hitter, good OBP, with decent 20-25 HR power. He’ll be a valuable hitter because of his gap power and high average, and so despite his average fielding, he will remain a valuable piece on this team. Something around 3-3.5 WAR year in year out.
Why do people keep saying that they think Freeman is nearing his peak? I don’t mean to pick on you – perhaps you have a good reason for the assertion. It seems to me, though, that a lot of people are basing their assessment of Freeman’s ceiling on what some of the prospect gurus were saying three years ago. He is still very young and appears to be improving in all the right areas – I just don’t get how that suggests that he is “nearing his peak.”
I suspect he will have some future better seasons, but it’s unrealstic to expect him to go from a solid slightly above average player into a top 20 in all of baseball player (which is what a .380 wOBA or .230+ ISO means these days)
no reason to think he might not have some very very good years ahead of him, I just think we are saying he probably won’t ever be an “elite” player.
“but it’s unrealstic to expect him to go from a solid slightly above average player into a top 20 in all of baseball player (which is what a .380 wOBA or .230+ ISO means these days)”
Why?
Yeah, I don’t follow you on that. A guy who has been pretty good before the age of (really) 23 should be able to improve. Does that mean he’ll be an MVP candidate? No. He’s a 1B, so he really has to hit to reach that level. But he’s a solid average hitter who has some untapped power potential. I’m pretty optimistic about Freddie, so take this for what it is.
so you say you don’t follow me on that and then make my same argument?
I’m not saying I don’t think he can be better, I’m saying that I don’t see him becoming a top 20 hitter in the game player.
Perhaps we disagree on the probability. I took “unrealistic” to mean a very small chance he becomes elite. I consider the chances significantly higher, though not necessarily “probable”.
I see the probability of “elite” as very low, but the probability of ‘very darn good” as very high.
I don’t expect him to be a top 20 in all of MLB hitter.
I DO expect him to be a top 50 in all of MLB hitter.
it may not seem like much, but there’s a fairly significant difference.
He was in the pool!
Freeman’s personality and baseball ability make him a favorite to watch.
What do you make of Freeman bulking up with Uggla? It might help him get those 40 HRs, but I shudder to think what else he is learning from Dan.
What do you mean? Do you think Uggla is going to spread his hitting disease to Freeman or something?
They are two separate guys with two separate sets of mechanics, I think worrying about them working out together is a bit silly.
You are all right. I suppose some silly superstitiion has no place on a sight dealing with real metrics and statistics.
I think the whole team should be on the Uggla workout regimen. Regardless of how he produces, no one can ever say he didn’t work his tail off in ALL aspects of the game. I see big things for this team and Freddie is one of them. He is overlooked by many people as a big part of this teams success, but those people will soon realize what an asset he really is.
I think one of the x-factors may be the fact that EVERYONE might improve just because the lineup is so stacked. Who do you pitch around to get to who? With so much power, everyone could potentially hurt you if you’re a pitcher, so everyone should see better pitches.
I don’t understand why people think Freeman isn’t capable of routinely hitting 30-35 bombs a season. I don’t remember who it was, but a couple years ago some ESPN writer said Freeman will never be anything special because he has absolutely no power. I was like WTF man?
To me Freeman seems perfectly capable of reaching his peek and being a guy who hits 30-35 bombs a season with 40 plus doubles. That falls in line with above average to me. He’ll probably never be a .300 hitter because he does swing and miss so much but he should be able to carry a .270-.280 average.
I think it’s much more likely that Freeman hits .300 than hitting 40 dingers, especially in the near future. People forget that for a good part of last season, he was averaging about .290 before hitting his slump. I would also say 25-30 homers is more likely, not that 30-35 is impossible.
Freddie’s RISP numbers were better in 2011 than in 2012. I hope he gets better with this statistic.
not sure if trolling.
No 4chan memes.
Judging by some of his past posts, definitely not trolling, sadly.
if you pray really really hard,and put your Freeman tooth under your pillow, the clutch fairy might bring you a present this year!!!
Freddie has the clutch crutch.
I believe that he still led the team in RBI
Maybe that was because he had more chances with RISP than his team mates, I do not know.
In “The Book” he says that RISP is not a reliable stat because it is chance and that over time it will probably fall around the hitter’s batting average (at least that is what I believe the author was indicating – you guys know far more about that than I do).
If that is the case why is so much emphasis put on a power hitting bench player that typically will have a lower BA and OBP than say a good hitting utility player. Reed Johnson led the league last year with 17 pinch hits.
If I were making up the composition of a team I would have my bench players be high BA and OBP guys with at least above average speed. It would not matter to me their ability to hit home runs, just get on base and either start the rally or keep it going.
Obviously, most teams will have a catcher that doesn’t meet my ideal bench player’s profile but still where there is an option my preference is the high BA and OBP guy over the power hitting lower BA and OBP guy.
Statistically, it would seem like better results would occur with the higher BA and OBP bench players. Is that assumption right or wrong?
the problem with this theory is that pinch hitters tend to com to bat in high leverage situations. You want to maximize these situations with the best possible outcome (a HR).
Not that having a bench of OBP guys can’t work. But if we are talking “optimizing the bench” you really want as many power hitting bats as you can fit on there. (and twice on sunday)
Yes, and not to mention, those high BA/OBP bench bats are also known as starters.
well, not always, there are guys that can pinch hit but get exposed when in a starting lineup. So they can carry a decent looking avg and OBP but it’s based on their facing more of what they feast on. (like say Diaz in his prime) rather than starting pitchers with 4 or more things to throw at em.
You make some interesting points.
Personally, I look at RISP numbers more than I do with other numbers. Some hitters might get more chances than others for this. They all need to produce some to most of the time.
From listening to Brian Jordan you would think that Schafer had the CF job in the bag.
The same Brian Jordan that on Sunday lauded the infield defense of last season as “phenomenal” and Chipper’s defense as “outstanding”.
I thought Chipper did pretty well considering, but I certainly wouldn’t say he was outstanding. The consensus around commentators seems to be that Uggla improved considerably and that Freeman is a plus defender.
yeah, but if Joe Simpson were a piece of nautical equipment he’d be an Astrolabe with a side of Sextant….
and he’d STILL be wanting Admiral Nelson to bunt.
Nick, that might be my favorite baseball comment ever.
Chipper was still below average defensively last season. Uggla for just the 3rd time in his career and first time since 2008 had a season where he was above average defensive with a runs saved of 2.0. Freeman has been well below average in his 2 full seasons.
The difference in his ISO cover from 2011 to 2012 is interesting. Seems to not have covered the plate on the outside for power as well but yet his BABIP map looked more balanced. Interesting
Anyone who denies FF’s defensive skills (esp. while touting Uggla’s improvement) didn’t watch any of the dozens of times FF saved Uggla’s throws in the dirt from skipping into the dugout.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops/
TL;DR: The difference between the best “Scooping” First Basemen and the worst “Scooping” First Basemen isn’t much. Even with First Base, range is still the most important factor, and Freeman doesn’t have a ton of range at First Base (though I personally did feel like he was better last year than in 2011).