Why And Why Not To Be Encouraged With Teheran’s Spring Start
March 8, 2013 at 12:26 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
Julio Teheran has looked fantastic this spring. His current line of 9 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 1 HBP, 12 K is outstanding, especially since it has come early in games against MLB talent (BRef’s talent faced index indicates a 9.2, where 8 is AAA level and 10 is purely MLB players).
The peripherals, in particular the K/BB ratio, are obviously what you want to see. But, we shouldn’t really read too much into them. It’s one game’s worth of innings, against hitters who have yet to really get down their timing. Teheran is probably a little ahead of readiness schedule due to playing winter ball and that’s led to most of his incredible K and control numbers. What we can do however is evaluate how he’s pitching, regardless of results. And his mechanics have also looked excellent. As we’ve remarked on here multiple times, what got Teheran in trouble last year was really dropping, getting under his fastball, causing it to sail over the middle, and predictably get crushed. This spring has seen Teheran stay on top of the ball, improving both his command and his movement, for only a very marginal drop in velocity.
Further, we’ve seen Teheran employ two pitches much more than in previous years, the sinker and the slider. Teheran’s two primary problems have been with having hitters tee off on his 4 seamer and inability to be consistent with the curve. Thus far the sinker and slider have seemed to ease both of those concerns. The question will ultimately become whether or not those two pitches detract from his 4 seamer and curve, just replace them, or supplement them. At this point it seems some combination of replacing and supplementing. However, it is very difficult for most pitchers to effectively throw both a slider and a curve on a consistent basis, and it’s especially rare for a pitcher to have a great 2 seamer and a great 4 seamer. But at this moment, we can really only be encouraged with the sinker and slider, and if the slider develops and supplants Teheran’s curve that flashes, but has never been consistent, then maybe it’s for the better.
Finally, though we haven’t seen Teheran get in much major trouble yet, the hints he’s seen of trouble didn’t cause him to return to his bad habits of trying to overthrow, and then dropping down, causing his fastball to straighten out and elevate over the heart of the plate.
Ultimately this last point will be the make or break point for Teheran’s season. Can he consistently maintain his newer mechanics? We can take a few positives from Teheran’s spring, not because of the way his stats look, but more because of the way his mechanics look. 9 innings is nowhere near enough to evaluate a player statistically, but you can have a bit of an idea from a scouting perspective, and Teheran has looked just as good in that respect as well. If he continues to throw like he’s throwing, he’ll have great results overall this season, he has that kind of stuff. But if he gets into jams and tries to just power the ball past guys, we could see the return of last year’s Julio. At least thus far we haven’t seen it, which is encouraging.
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When your early season ace from the previous year is recovering from Tommy John surgery and your biggest concern is the consistency of your 5th pitcher… Things are looking very good for your pitching staff. I’m beyond excited about the potential of this pitching staff. Beachy, Medlen, and Minor may be our new Smoltz, Maddox, and Glavine.
well, I have a lot of other concerns as well. Hudson’s aging, how good or durable is Medlen exactly, which Minor will show up? The other way of framing your question may also be “when the only real sure bet you have on your staff is your fourth starter, you could be in trouble”
Our staff could be excellent, should be above average… but lets not compare beachy, medlen and minor to 3 future HOFs just yet. We were spoiled in the 90s and no one in history has been spoiled as such before or since. Our team rests firmly on bats this year. We’re all in on offense and I’m all for it. Quality starts out of the staff, consistency in the bullpen and the plate get us to the playoffs.
Didn’t he get into a jam yesterday with that balk?
That was a pretty low leverage situation being the 4th inning of a tie game. I want to see how he handles going through an order the 2nd and 3rd time through. The ability to make adjustments to a batter that’s seen you twice mid game is what can move him mid rotation to top tier.
Franklin, what can I say? I’m an optimist. I see us getting the Mike Minor from the last 2 months of last season. Maholm will be solid, giving us about 6 2/3 per start and a 3.50 ERA. Medlen will be fine. Although not as lights out as last year I envision a 2.85 – 3.15 ERA and a lot of quality starts. Hudson’s health will play a small role but nothing major. Maybe he gets to rest a few starts once Beachy comes back. Beachy will struggle a bit at first but round into form in time for the playoffs.(Oh yeah, and we’ll have 4 players with 25+ HRs, but thats another discussion) Honestly, isn’t this what we’ll need to make it to a REAL playoff series this season?
sure, I mean all those things could happen. I’m merely stating that Teheran isn’t our only, or even our biggest, question mark in the rotation.
One thing I’m digging about Julio is the use of the 2 seamer and slider. IF he can command them both, this could turn that 4 seamer into a devastating out pitch. and his curve would be a nice “keep em honest” flash pitch instead of relying on it for K’s.
This is all yet to be seen in regular season action though.
I really don’t think he will be able to consistently command 5 pitches, especially with two of them, the curve and change, being feel pitches. I’d imagine that if he really starts using the slider he would drop the curve, and just go FB, SI, SL, CH.
It will also be interesting to see if he can consistently use a 4 and 2 seamer, it’s pretty rare, as most pitchers end up choosing one or the other.
I threw both in High School! But I used the 2 seamer as kinda like a cutter as my 2 seamer cut a little inside to lefties more like a cutter.
I really should proofread before I push the post button….
I was definitely encouraged by what I saw last night. He looked nothing like the pitcher that got lit up last spring. It was also nice to see him have a bad inning and but limit the damage to just 1 run.
Can I report this for spam? Smh
Whats your over under on the Braves having a 20 game winner?
That’s not really how over/unders work. I guess you mean an over/under on number of wins the staff leader has? Or percentage chance somebody has 20 wins? Though part of me dies on the inside at responding to a query about pitcher wins, I’ll go with 15 as the staff leader over/under and 10% as the chance somebody gets 20.
Braves pitchers: Over/under .5 20-game winners?
Thanks for interpreting my question lol
Teheran has looked good in the little bit I have seen him this spring, but he still doesn’t look like a future Ace to me. I think he will be a good2-3 starter and become just another starter the Braves get nothing for late in his arbitration years.
Hudson and Maholm are what they are. Good reliable starters. Hudson has some extra injury risk, but he should be solid. Maholm will be the same soft tossing LHer he has always been.
I think Medlen is going to settle in as a good #3 after he posts 180 innings of 3.8-4.0 ERA production this year. He is also nowhere near an Ace. The Maddux comps are completely absurd, and folks will realize this after Medlen pitches a full season. 12 starts does make an Ace make…
Minor has a shot to be a fringe Ace, but I think he will also settle in as a good #2. Some people will try to argue he is an Ace, but he will fall just short of the true studs. I think he will be the most valuable pitcher on the staff by the end of the year, but only because Beachy won’t have pitched many innings.
Beachy is the only guy I see on the staff with Ace potential. He throws hard. He is smart. He has the attitude that “OK” isn’t good enough. By next season he will be the undisputed #1 of the staff.
Actually yesterday Baseball Prospectus came out with their Braves top 10 prospects. They updated Teheran as a #2-3 ceiling guy now but they did not seem to do the scouting this offseason or in ST to see his new mechanics or utilization of his 2 seamer and slider.
I also have to say that top 10 under 25 talent is ridiculous.
Also Medlen has the makeup to be an ace. While you are right we need more than 12 starts I think you are significantly undervaluing him. Guys who can flash brilliance have the ability to always be brilliant it just takes great coaching and a good makeup. Medlen has more instances of brilliance than not.
It’s not just 12 starts with Medlen. Remember 2010? Medlen was pretty darn good in his starts that year too.
Medlen for his career has a lower ERA as a starter than he does outta the pen. Stretched over parts of 3 seasons he’s made 30 starts (a full season).
30 GS, 186 IP, 160 H, 62 R, 58 ER, 37 BB, 165 SO, 2.81 ERA.
That’s a pretty darn good pitcher in my book.
Rawlings GG Awards now to include a SABER aspect.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/gold-glove-awards-take-another-step-forward/
Ace doesn’t matter really until the postseason. Even then, it doesn’t matter all that much. Have a rotation of mid rotation types, an 81 win team becomes an 86 win team. A good bullpen makes that 86 win team an 88 win team. A good lineup makes that 88 win team a 93 win team and a bona fide contender. A decent bench makes that 93 win team a 94 win team.
That k:bb ratio is sick. The fact that he has great command and doesn’t give up many walks is what makes me believe he’s the real deal.
Our bats should give our pitchers a chance to get settled into the season. I feel that eventually our pitching staff will be our biggest asset going into the playoffs, and that’s what wins championships! I very excited about the potential of line up even though we lost Prado and Bourn at the top… The middle can compete with some of the best in the game. And if Chris Johnson can be solid defensively, offensively he can be a real wildcard for our line up!
We may not have an ace like Verlander, but I really like our depth. We may not have a true #1, but with Hudson, Medlen, Minor and Beachy we have 4 pretty solid #2 starters. There are plenty of teams who would take that.
The only starter I’m really worried about is Maholm. I just don’t think his stuff is that great. He doesn’t have one pitch that is a serious “plus” pitch, or out pitch, at least not that I can see. I guess his upside is that he has been in the league several years, so you know what to expect and he should at least be consistently mediocre, which isn’t as much of an insult as it might sound.
Re: Medlen projects as a #3:
I think the problem with Medlen is his size and nothing to do with his stats. If Medlen were 6’2″ and had the exact same performance, he would be touted as a potential ace. As in, we all know what an ace looks like, and he doesn’t look like Medlen. Even Maddux had 2-3 inches on Medlen.
Is this valid or just prejudice? Statistically, it looks more like prejudice:
http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter
Are short pitchers less durable, though? Also looks like prejudice according to that article. My concerns about Medlen are only his TJ history, but I will be surprised if he stays healthy and doesn’t have some FIP’s in the 3-3.3 range in the next 5 years. He probably won’t be in the top-tier group of aces, but you can be a #1 starter without being top-15.
Yes, Maddux projections are absurd for anyone, but I’m not sure he was so much projected to be Maddux (ludicrous) but *compared* to Maddux as a short RH SP with excellent command of low-90′s running fastball. He doesn’t need to be Maddux to be a decent #1 for a few seasons. Projecting him as a #3 says he’s a little above league average, and that should be seen as Medlen’s floor at this point, barring injury.
I’m a long time reader and although this isn’t the place for my inquiry ,I trust the knowledge of baseball fans on this site more than others I read. I live in Jacksonville, FL. and have had Extra Innings for the last few years. I have no knowledge of MLB.TV and was curious if I should make the switch?
I don’t know much about Extra Innings, but I have been very happy with mlb.tv. One thing to note is that you will be blacked out of any live broadcasts from teams in your area. I entered a generic Jacksonville zip code on the mlb.tv website and it looks like you wouldn’t be able to watch the Rays or Marlins. If you are a Braves fan, of course, this means that you probably would be barred from watching Braves-Marlins games. Obviously if you are using mlb.tv to supplement a regular cable subscription that shouldn’t be a problem.
Somebody needs to tell the coaches of Team USA to stop bunting. Also, why not pitch Kimbrel in the 8th to face the heart of the Canadian lineup?
Cuz, Kimbrel is closer. Can’t save game in 8. “Grunt” Old School. Also Torre seems to be trying to lose all of these games.