Which BJ Will We Get?
March 12, 2013 at 2:53 pm by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
We’ve alluded to this issue several times, but a lot of how this season may play out depends on which BJ Upton we get. Do we get the guy who put up back to back .380+ OBPs in 2007 and 2008, or do we get the guy who was in the .320 – .330 OBP range thereafter; up until last year, when he went .298 OBP (yikes).
The biggest culprit has seemed to be good old ‘aggressiveness’, a familiar bugaboo for CAC. In 2008 BJ swung at just 15% of pitches out of the zone. In 2012, he swung at over twice that clip, 32.7%. He also saw his in the zone swing percentage go up from 67% to 75% in the same years. The former trend is incredibly problematic, while the latter is okay. It’s just very difficult to be a productive hitter when you swing at 1/3 of all pitches thrown to you out of the zone.
One issue this lineup potentially has is that it has no real prototypical leadoff hitter with great on base ability. BJ once had that. 2007 BJ, with his current grown man power, could be a dynamic leadoff guy. The weird thing is that out of zone swing percentage is usually something that you see players improve on as they age, not massively decline in. Was it just a change in approach? It would seem odd that such a forward thinking organization as the Rays would push for Upton to be more aggressive out of the zone. It will be an interesting thing to watch. If you want to know what we’re likely to see out of BJ, watch that out of zone swing percentage early. If we have wait and rake BJ, we could be in for a a great year from him, as he’s improved most every other facet of his game.
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we will get the BJ we deserve, right now…..
Nice quick little article btw! I expect BJ to do a bit better now that he’s surrounded by good offensive players for once. With Longoria out and the other half of the team hurt at any given moment, he was forced to be “the man” his last few years in Tampa. I suspect that in Atlanta we will see a little bit more OBP and a few less dingers.
That’s what I’ve always thought as well. I’m not sure how to look at the numbers, but perhaps being the only real threat in that lineup meant there was a massive increase in the amount of pitches out of the zone he was seeing. You’d hope he would still lay off of them, but I guess he was antsy for some contact! That’s why I think having him lead off would be better. If he is towards the bottom of the order, probably 6th, if Francisco and Laird are behind him, pitchers will probably still stay away from him. If he’s leading off, he will see plenty of strikes with Heyward, Upton, and Freeman behind him. I think that would maximize his usage in the order. It’s not like batting Simmons 6 or 7 is going to change his approach a whole lot, he’s got pretty decent contact numbers anyways.
I just think the boost in OBP due to approach that BJ could benefit from heavily outweighs the maybe slight dip we’d see from Simmons if they switched spots.
he saw 4% fewer pitches in the zone during that period. Though its more likely that was a result of him getting in more bad counts, allowing pitchers to pitch out of the zone more.
Thanks for finding that.
Perhaps that 4% is more problematic than it seems, for the reason that you pointed out. He did have his highest F-Strike% of his career in 2012, so perhaps he was compounding the problem as the count ran deeper, rather than making an adjustment during the PA.
Comparing his OBP numbers through all of the counts (through 0-1, 2-2, etc) shows that he was ~100 points lower in 2012 than 2007 in almost all of the counts. Obviously most of that can be attributed to his out of the zone swinging, but I think that probably shows that he is capable of adjusting to the count. If I were Greg Walker, I’d have him look for a VERY specific pitch with fresh counts. He seems to get destructive rather than opportunistic as the strikes pile up.
I agree with you guys’ assessment of the decline in B.J.’s performance being centered around having to be “the man,” but for a different reason. Not so much because pitchers were or weren’t pitching around him, but because he felt the pressure of having to be the entire offense. We all know that when it’s late in games and your team just needs that one run to win, players tend to swing a good bit harder.
Maybe B.J. did that constantly because he felt he was the only true threat in the lineup?
For all we know, the TB coaches told him to go up there and swing as hard as he can at everything. It’s at least a little comforting to know that he’s got it in him to be patient. But also, the coaches can’t control what he actually swings at when he’s at the plate, and maybe that’s why they grew frustrated with him. I guess we’ll find out.
there’s a stronger correlation between guys on base when you come up to the plate and getting pitches in the zone than there is between who hits behind you and getting pitches in the zone. it doesn’t seem like this is going to be a lineup geared towards obp, so… i’m not sure the lineup will have as much to do with his success next season as it might seem at first glance.
with that said, the lineup might help his rate stats to a small degree (since it is a much, much more potent one than TB), but we ultimately might end up having to settle for the same ol’ sloppy bj… that is, unless he takes it upon himself to actively focus more on what’s in the zone. he’s going to have to quit spending so much time on those balls and work it in the zone more if we’re going to end up with a better bj.
I just like the title “Which BJ will we get”. I see what you did there Franklin.
I didn’t even notice that until a follower pointed it out, haha.
I am sure that the title of this article has helped it get a few more hits than the average article on this site.
I get the feeling that plate approach is the sort of thing that changes depending on the team. For example, I have always had the the feeling that the Yankees have a solid plate approach no matter who is on the team. The Braves walk rate in 2012 was 9.3%, second in the league, so maybe it will rub off on BJ? But the braves were second in walk rate to the Rays…so there goes that theory, unless BJ was just antagonizing his team.
Side note in consideration from today’s game… I know we just had the article about not to get too excited about Teheran, but DAMN he is looking good.
yeah, like the way he’s looked, but big key will be if he can maintain his adjustments late into games against quality MLB’ers.
Do we get a sloppy, aggressive, underperfoming BJ? Or an efficient, talented, and balanced BJ?
haha.
If we are wondering what bj we will get from an upton I’m hoping for Kate.
230 people who voted in your poll accidentally voted for players not named Jason Heyward. Can you zero out their votes and let them vote correctly? Thanks.
Gattis actually managed to get some hits against ML pitchers today.
yeah, Motte didn’t look to have his best stuff, but that was definitely encouraging, as far as meaningless spring games go.
Are you guys at Capitol Club impressed with Gattis yet? Or is he still just too physically developed (26 yo) for the competition? Just saying…
I don’t think spring training should change anybody’s opinion on any player. Be it Teheran, Gattis, Heyward. Do you think Heyward is going to be terrible yet?
it’s spring training. Pitchers aren’t pitching to scouting reports yet, he’s only faced a couple of MLB caliber pitchers, etc. There is just nothing you can take from his performance either way. Plus guys who play in winter ball are almost always at an advantage early in ST. See Teheran, Julio. We may well end up being idiots for being low on Gattis, but we would be even bigger idiots if the first couple of weeks of spring training swayed our opinions. Just sayin…
Franklin, I think it was you who was saying you took a bet that Gattis wouldn’t hit .500 in Spring Training. You have to be getting to that “oh shit…” point, or at least the slight discomfort level. He’s another 2-for-2 (he’d be 15-for-30) from there.
And I’m not a Gattis nuthugger… I would have taken that bet in a heartbeat.
eh, I tend to be completely detached from my bets after they’re made. I may be a robot though. I actually root for gattis to get a hit every time he comes up.
You don’t love to win?? You should hang out with Justin.
I think you are safe, in the coming weeks Gattis will have to face actual MLB pitching, and I suspect the breaking pitches will kick his a$$
First Robot Ben… now Franklin might be a robot… I guess I’ll be the one to get it out of the way and say,”you can’t stop judgement day, only postpone it.”
Fucking SkyNet!
would be nice a piece on who pick up to leadoff or lineup optimization
Not really sure about lineup optimization. With our projected starters, a retarded monkey could probably put together an optimal lineup. The players pretty much fall into slots, except for lead-off (still projecting Andrelton).