Dan Uggla and Making Contact
March 13, 2013 at 4:44 pm by Mark Smith under Atlanta Braves
Dan Uggla is easily the most frustrating player on the Braves. He makes the second-most money on the team, but he’s probably the seventh-best position player. And while he hits some mammoth blasts, he strikes out 5 times as much, and that doesn’t include the botched plays at second. His ability to hit some mammoth blasts and take walks, of course, gives him value. The main concern about that value, however, is that it’s expected to plummet sometime soon, and the main reason for that is because strikeout-prone hitters don’t tend to age very well.
Uggla strikes out a lot, but I was curious whether he’s worse than he had been in the past.
K/AB is the traditional K%, but I added K/PA to see if he was striking in out in more of his plate appearances than normal. As you can see from just looking at those numbers, Uggla has done 2012 before (2008) and recovered. Uggla swings at a few more pitches out of the zone (oSW%), but the number isn’t drastically higher. He swings at a similar number of pitches in the zone (zSW%), and while his contact rate (CT%) is the worst of his career, it’s not substantially worse than 2008.
Looking at some zone maps for Uggla’s contact rate …
Uggla’s sweet spot is middle-in, which shouldn’t be surprising, and in 2012, it saw a substantial drop in contact rates. This, however, can be explained in two ways. One, Uggla is losing his ability to make contact, or two, it’s no worse than 2008. Unfortunately, the maps don’t go back to 2008, so we remain in the dark a little bit. But seeing the other numbers react in a similar manner indicates he might have done this before, and it is more troubling now that he’s 33. As Franklin said in the last CACast, it’s one thing to strike out taking a few close pitches, but it’s another to simply miss pitches. Maybe he should use a lighter bat.
Going back to the table above, there is one troubling column – Strike%. Since the beginning of his career, pitchers have been throwing Uggla fewer and fewer strikes as they realized the danger he presented at the plate. The problem, however, is that Uggla isn’t laying off of those pitches. In fact, he’s swinging at more of them now.
Where is he swinging at more pitches out of the zone?
Low-and-away. He’s actually gained a keener eye when it comes to inside pitches, but he’s losing it when it comes to pitches below and outside of the zone. While the overall percentage of swinging strikes hasn’t changed drastically, the denominator (number of balls) has gone up, which means the numerator (number of swings at balls) has to go up as well.
The most recent example of Uggla losing some plate discipline and contact ability is concerning. We’re not a fan of 30-somethings having such issues, but at the same time, none of this is exactly new. Uggla’s had rough seasons before and bounced back. The question is whether he made changes that time (unlikely considering 2008 was a really good season for Uggla – 4.6 fWAR due to a near career-high BABiP of .320) or can this time. Looking at the projections, ZIPS sees a sharp decline, but Oliver and Steamer don’t see a drastic drop. Will Uggla turn into an albatross, or will he continue to be frustrating-yet-valuable? I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
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I forsee another season full of numerous strikeouts and a few homeruns. Uggla has until the All-Star break to prove that he an still contribute on a big league level. If he’s hitting under .220 in July then its time to find a replacements. On another note, is it just me or has he lost weight?
I have seen some stories saying he and FF have been working out a lot together in the offseason, so to your question…maybe. .220 with a ton of walks can still be useful, but if I were the Braves training staff, I would make him take a million rockets to 2nd until he handles that throw to first with the greatest of ease.
He’s definitely skinnier. We’ll see if that helps. It can’t hurt.
If I were the braves I would platoon him with Tyler Pastornicky at second base. If not outright start Pastornicky. Pastornicky is having a fantastic spring and is equal or better than Uggla defensively at second base. I think Pastornicky will be our 2B of the future.
Let’s not get too excited about Pastor’s Spring. I’m a fan of his, but let’s not get carried away.
I love Pastornicky too…. my favorite player outside of Justin. However, I think it’s too early to make him a starter. Already tried that last year. He’ll let us know when he’s ready. Give Uggla til July, in my opinion, and if he continues to struggle, then, and maybe then give Tyler the shot. Until then, let him work at 2B and continue getting some ABs.
I think he can take over the job by next year possibly, he certainly is stronger in the wrists/arms and it’s showing at the plate. But I wouldn’t want to make him the starter or starter in waiting (lying on the bench) yet. Give him some Gwinnett ABs.
Pastornicky . . . is equal or better than Uggla defensively at second base.
Maybe this is controversial around these here parts, but I don’t think he is. Uggla’s range is pretty limited, but Pastornicky just makes an astounding number of mistakes. Maybe Pastornicky has the potential to be better than Uggla defensively, but right now I think defense alone should keep Pastornicky from spending time at second for the major league club.
I watch almost every Braves game, and I really just don’t see many defensive mess-ups by Uggla. He has pretty good range, and he doesn’t doesn’t botch up many plays. He had 12 errors last year compared to Infante’s 16 in 2010. Sure, errors aren’t everything when it comes to defensive, but I think that well references the ‘botched plays’ you are referencing. And that’s just inaccurate, he’s not that type of fielder.
if by ‘pretty good range’ you mean perhaps the worst range of any every day second baseman in MLB, then sure. It’s nearly impossible to gauge range from watching TV. you have to be watching the player before the ball is even hit to even begin to see range. I have season tickets on the first base side, about 10 rows up. Dan Uggla does not have pretty good, good, or even average range.
If you are watching the game in person, you are missing the analysis from Joe and Chip. Try watching on TV a little more this season – you will learn that Uggla does indeed have impressive range.
Laughed out loud at this. Great Joke! (Since I know some people here don’t get it)
From watching Joe and Chip, you will learn that anyone who makes a diving stop “showed great range.” Never mind the fact that an average defender makes the play without leaving his feet.
Mark – is it possible to look into where he’s being pitched? I’d be interested to see if there’s been an increase in pitchers throwing low and away to him, in addition to him swinging more often down there. I remember thinking last year that pitchers were constantly throwing him either junk low and away or heat way above the strike zone – if that shows up in the numbers, could help to explain the higher swinging strike rate (missing low and away pitches) and the extremely high IFFB% (getting under high pitches)
The increase is actually in to him, but it hasn’t changed substantially.
I will never blame the Braves for signing Uggla to the contract they did. When you look at the numbers he put up for the Marlins, it was not crazy to think he would do the same for us, or close to it. He does have the record for consecutive 30 HR seasons by a second baseman, and he used to kill us when he was with the Marlins. I was excited when we signed him and thought it was a great move.
That said, I do think this year is a make or break year in terms of whether Uggla is merely “disappointing” or if he slides into “one of the most overpaid players/worst contracts in MLB history” territory. There really isn’t any hope of trading him, but there are times when you get to the point where it’s worth paying somebody to NOT play for you. Kenshin Kawakami, I’m looking at you.
I think the root of Uggla’s problem is something that has probably occurred to anyone who has seen an interview with him. The guy just isn’t too bright. He is very athletic and has superior power, but when it comes to making adjustments to his swing, or winning the chess game with opposing pitchers, or anything that requires the mental aspect of baseball, he just isn’t up to the task. Anything more complicated than “Me Dan Uggla! Me swing hard!” seems beyond his grasp.
In that way, he is the anti-Chipper.
I assume we’re talking baseball intelligence, because Chipper isn’t exactly a member of Mensa. He had some hilarious tweets about the Warren commission after he watched JFK, as if he’d read the report and not just watched some dumb movie.
Yes, I’m talking about baseball intelligence. Criticize Chipper’s intellect in other areas if you must, but there is no doubt he had that.
Uggla doesn’t seem to have intelligence of any kind, baseball or otherwise.
I agree with Uggla’s lack of grasp of the game. Chipper was a student of the game, a natural if you will. Thinking through slumps, and making adjustments for the better doesn’t come natural to Dan. Bases loaded, two outs, game is on the line..Uggla comes up and swings like he wants to launch it to the next county. Small ball and situational play isn’t in his vocabulary. I wish it was, but it just isn’t.
@Longshot
In his defense, small ball is not what we brought Dan on for. In fact, I’m pretty sure you could say we didn’t bring him on for his baseball intelligence either.
We basically signed him to hit bombs since that is what he has done his whole career. Yeah, being able to recognize situations, take walks, strikeout less, and play better defense would all be great and even a bonus, but it’s just not what he was brought here to do.
I do realize that is somewhat of a cop-out. Trust me, I want him back to circa 2008-9 days, but the point remains that to this day he has actually met and exceeded his contract’s value.
We knew coming in this contract was an albatross and we definitely know that it is likely going to get worse for Dan. But, we seem to be forming our expectations of him based on his contract and not the tools he possesses, which is unfair to him.
Don’t get me wrong, I love #10. It was just the way you prefaced that about Uggla coming across poorly in interviews. I actually can’t think of an active player who comes off as super-intelligent in interviews.
I like that sites such as Deadspin et al. have started giving Chipper some attention the last few years. There was the “fat” controversy, his awful super bowl VIP party, and this classic:
https://twitter.com/RealCJ10/status/284347714064482304/photo/1
How did he even *get* the stepladder there?
Those basketball goals come in a box and you have to assemble them. Chances are he had it proped against the ladder (vice the table it calls for) and didn’t realize his mistake until it was a bit to late. Nothing a hacksaw and a new 15$ ladder wont fix.
I was really hoping that the Braves would find a way to traded Uggla this past winter. Even if the Braves would have had to eat a chunk o his salary I still think it would have been a good move. Any money that could have been freed up by trading Uggla would have been money that could be better spent elsewhere.
I think even Fredo reached a point of frustration with Uggla last year. For better or worse Uggla put up some pretty good numbers in September and kind of rescued his overall numbers for the year. Still, my guess is that by the end of the season Pastornicky is starting at 2B. At that point Uggla becomes completely untradeable.
I think Uggla is already completely untradeable. If he puts up numbers similar to last year, I don’t know if there is a team in the majors who would rather have him than their existing starting second baseman.
We just have to hope Uggla figures it out this year and proves us all wrong, which I do think is possible, or we will have a 10 million plus guy sitting on the bench.
Oh come on. Uggla was still worth 3.5 fWar and 2.7 rWar last year. Those numbers were probably inflated by inaccurate defensive metrics, and perhaps you think that his exceptional BB% is unsustainable going forward. Still, he isn’t exactly Chone Figgins. I’ll admit that I’m worried that Uggla will completely collapse this season, but despite all the frustration, that collapse has not happened yet.
Based on Fangraph’s number of $4.5M per win, Uggla has been worth $11M and $15.7M in the past two years, while the Braves have paid him $9M and $13M. As long as he maintains his level of production, his contract won’t be a bad one (although it won’t be a good one, either). The concern is that he has three years left, and is already 33 years old. Paying a 35 year old Uggla $13M in 2015 isn’t great.
Uggla is notoriously bad early, so will everyone just relax and let’s see how he plays before we all start assuming the absolute worst case scenario.
We are lucky that we already have capable replacements on the roster (one who can hit: Rev and a couple who can flash the leather: Janish and Pena) and if we can get productivity out of the C position which we should with either Gattis or McCann (who I am pulling for) then we all we need is someone to field ground balls and turn double plays and we’ll be fine.
I read this blog everyday bc I love the technical analysis, but I get tired of some of the naysayers who post on here. Fact is Uggla salary is accounted for, I’m sure he is motivated to do better which is always good and we are in pretty good shape in the even we need to do make an addition.
Has anyone noticed with Pastornicky’s play that the majority of his defensive issues come from rushing his movement, either by not adjusting to ball position after contact or else not taking the time to line up a throw. Given his speed he rarely needs to rush a throw to first, and as much as I used to despise Yunel’s constant double clutch throw, he rarely made throwing errors due to his willingness to slow down a little.
With all of that said, Uggla’s 2012 numbers come a lot from lack of protection. The 2012 Braves were a beat up crew who lost most of their power between Chipper’s constant need for a day off, Freddie’s eye issues, and BMAc’s shoulder, which left them with JHey as the only consistent offensive weapon. Sitting Uggla in the seven spot after a pitcher has been worh out by Freeman, the Uptons, Heyward, and, hopefully, BMac should give him a better positioning to hit at a 2010 level.
I have a feeling that one way or another Uggla is gone after this season. Wren can unload him if he eats enough money. An AL team could use him to DH and play some 2B. I think Pastor spends the bulk of this season in AAA and is the starter at 2B in 2014.
Way I look at it, Uggla s going to have 2 months where he he hits .720- .750 OPS, 2 months where he he hits .800+ OPS and 2 months where he hits under a .700 OPS. That seems to be his standard model. As long as he can stay in the top 10 or 12 in 2B WAR it’s hard to complain. It’s not like there is a plethora of astounding 2B performers out there on the cheap the Braves can easily pick up to replace him with.
What are the chances we get him to adjust his swing? Its such an all or nothing attempt at hitting HRs. If he could just level it out a little bit…
he could then maybe be a slap hitter who still strikes out a lot, but maybe a little less! In all seriousness, at this point in time, those kinds of major swing overhauls are much more likely to harm than help. His best bet is to try to get back to closer to what he was, not further depart.
I agree with TexasBrave. Uggla’s salary is a sunk cost at this point and there’s no point worrying about it. The Braves should not let his salary influence whether or not he plays; on the other hand, fans shouldn’t worry about whether his performance measures up to his salary. That money is gone and isn’t coming back. If he is productive, it’s a plus even if it isn’t “worth” his salary.
I thought K/PA was the standard K% not K/AB. the K% from Fangraphs is K/PA. What I find interesting for Uggla though was last year was a career high in LD%. When he made contact 20.1% of the time it was a LD. He also saw a skyrocket in the number of IFFB. His HR/FB% also dropped which I think is one of the bigger concerns
I blame it all on his walk up song.
Even though I haven’t made time to get into them, I’m a fan of using different measurements, i.e. sabermetrics, to analyze players. As I am unfamiliar, is there a way to measure Uggla’s production when it actually matters? It has seemed to me the only time Uggla performs offensively is when the Braves are up or down big. Who gives a crap if he hits a solo HR in the 8th when the Braves are up or down 10-1?
And despite sabermetrics, in what world is hitting below the Mendoza line acceptable?