A Brief List of Reasons Why We Don’t Pay Attention To Spring Stats
March 21, 2013 at 10:30 am by Franklin Rabon under Atlanta Braves
This is a notoriously difficult time of the year for bloggers of our sort of slant to write. While most articles at this time of year focus around things like who the opening day starter is and spring stats and performances, we’re actively opposed to furthering those sorts of stories. So, I thought today we would briefly talk about the myriad reasons why we don’t value spring stats.
1) Sample size – The most obvious reason is simply the small number of plate appearances and innings pitched. In the course of just a few days we can see Evan Gattis’ batting average drop by nearly 150 points, Mike Minor’s ERA double and Uggla bring his batting average up by 50 points with one single. Often it takes more than a full season’s worth of plate appearances to really have a reliable indicator of a player’s quality, yet sometimes we try to do this with something like 30-50 PAs?
2) Players really are ‘working on things’ – A lot of fans groan at this explanation as some sort of excuse for poor spring training performance. But it really has a lot of merit and manifests itself in several different ways. First, is the obvious angle that players may be working on a certain pitch, thereby showing hitters a subpar pitch and showing it repeatedly; hitters may be working on an adjustment to their swing; fielders may be getting used to new positions. Secondly, pitchers don’t pitch to a scouting report in spring. During a regular season game, if a player was known to have a certain hole in his swing, you can bet that a pitcher would be targeting that. During spring games though, most pitchers concentrate more on executing their pitches than worrying about what the hitter at the plate is doing, ie the Chuck James approach. And we see how well that approach worked for Chuck James over the long haul. Further, hitters with certain holes in their swing are less likely to have those holes exploited, and they’re likely to see more pitches in their ‘happy zone’ than they may in the regular season.
3) Pitchers aren’t seeing the lineup as many times as they do in the regular season – A big key to being a successful starting pitcher is how well you fare the third time through the lineup. As pitchers tire and hitters see the arsenal throughout multiple at bats, the advantage shifts from the pitcher to the hitter. How much the pitcher mitigates this shifting is a major key towards how good of a pitcher they can be. Often times the difference between a #3 starter and a #4 starter is that the #3 can successfully navigate through the lineup the third time with minimal damage, and perhaps even face some hitters a fourth time, where your typical #4 starter is going to begin being hit harder the 3rd time through and really hard if he faces hitters a fourth time. In spring most hitters won’t face a single starter 3 times in one game all spring, let alone 4 times. A large percentage of runs scored on starting pitchers in the regular season come from those third and fourth times through the lineup. Removing them highly alters how the game works.
4) Quality of opponents can vary so wildly – Some players will be hitting or pitching against mostly MLB talent, while some face the equivalent of AA opponents. This non-uniformity of opposition essentially makes stats that were already pretty meaningless for the reasons outlined above even more meaningless. Yesterday Mark talked a bit about non-uniformity of schedules this season, and how it could impact the Braves. But consider that the difference between MLB teams and what players face in spring are different by orders of magnitude.
Ultimately it’s very important that we keep the ‘training’ aspect of spring training in mind when we look at these stats from spring. While it’s important that we don’t worry too much about a struggling player whose swing or pitching motion otherwise looks sound, it’s perhaps equally important that we temper our expectations on players who are having incredible springs. Mike Minor from last year is perhaps a pertinent cautionary tale that ended up turning out alright. He was near flawless all spring, but as soon as the games started to count, he struggled for the entire first half of the season. Instead of ascribing this to some sort of ‘learning to deal with the pressure’ or whatever imaginary ex post facto explanation we might apply, we should probably just understand that Spring stats are meaningless and have very little bearing on what we will see come April 1.
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The actual numbers aren’t important, but it’s good to see the lineup hitting the stuffing out of the ball as the season nears.
I realize spring training is a week longer this year, but are we sure it isn’t two months longer? It just won’t freaking end!
Aside from injury concerns, I think the fact that this is the most exciting Braves team in recent memory is really contributing to my eagerness for the season to be here. Get here now, April!
That Gattis batting average bet you made is looking pretty good right now isn’t it, Franklin.
haha, well it was an absurd bet regardless of who it was. What is making me look bad currently is that I kept the .500 average for $100 bet instead of allowing him to up the bet to $500 if Gattis is under .400.
FWIW, Gattis has a .997 OPS this spring. His OPS the last two seasons: .986 and .995. Wait hold on, Keith Law just called, ignore Gattis spring OPS. 26 is old for the Grapefruit League. Carry on.
SSS and lots of minor league pitchers. Spring numbers don’t mean much.
Brian, this has been covered ad nauseum here, but I’ll say it a different way.
Gattis is very good against low- to mid-level minor league pitching. His numbers don’t tell us much else.
The things I take away from Spring:
Freeman has hit a lot of homeruns. Good, his eyes seem to be working and he’s healthy. That’s all I get out of it.
Teheran’s pitching very well. His command of his fb is better. That’s it. Oh and he’s healthy.
Medlen bombed his last outing. yawn.
It’s definitely nice to see Teheran getting 8 Ks an outing instead of 8 HRs.
So you don’t think that Freddie Freeman is going to slug .780 this year?
It’s really more about how guys look in their approach at the plate and their command on the mound than the actual results. If a pitcher has good movement on his pitches and throwing strikes but getting hit all over the place we shouldn’t be concerned. If a hitter is taking a good approach at the plate and seeing a lot of pitches and making good contact but making outs and has a low average we shouldn’t be concerned. Jason Heyward is a perfect example of the latter. He doesn’t have eye pop spring numbers like a lot of the other Braves but in watching his at-bats he’s swinging the bat well.
Speaking of Jason, it looks to me that he’s standing noticeably closer to the plate this spring. Has there been discussion of this that I’ve missed.
I haven’t heard or read anything about Heyward’s position in the batter’s box. But it does appear that he might be a hair closer to the dish. I know both Upton’s (especially Justin) stand pretty close to the plate.
Wish I would have remembered to put this in the other post. But yesterday the Braves had David Justice on the broadcast and he was talking about putting in a lot of work with BJ Upton and how BJ was responding to it.
Speaking of Jason, it looks to me that he’s standing noticeably closer to the plate this spring. Has there been discussion of this that I’ve missed?
Ugh. Sorry about that. And for this comment apologizing.
any concern with the lack of walks up and down the order this spring? sure, small sample size, players fine tuning their swings, and of course we can’t expect many walks from Johnson and Francisco to begin with. yes, spring stats in general are trivial, but do you think this is predictive of anything?
no
I think they’re working on there swings first, patience later.
I would think that Spring Training is the one time when you really don’t want guys looking to walk. What’s the point in trying to “work the count” on a pitcher who is probably just fine-tuning his pitches anyway and doesn’t particularly care if you walk?
A high OBP in Spring Training doesn’t mean anything. I would rather see guys getting their swings in and trying to make contact.
To paraphrase Allen Iverson, we talkin’ about practice!
haha the Chuck James approach. He never knew who any of the batters were. I think it was Beltran that James asked if he was “good or something.”
Scouts on James: “Hey who’s that kid Glavine out ther…. oh wait looks more like Mike Glavine.”
Anyone else see the tweet from David O’ Brien saying (according to Fredi Gonzalez) Cristhian Martinez was in a battle with Anthony Varvaro, David Carpenter and Wirfin Obispo for the final bullpen spot? I figured Martinez was a lock for one of the bullpen spots with the way he’s pitched the last couple of years for the Braves.
DOB wouldn’t know a “scoop” if it fell off his ice cream cone
I’m holding out hope that this was just DOB taking a break from riding his hog to post a barves article and not something that Fredi is actually considering. If it is accurate, I take back all the “he’s improving” a little comments I’ve said to people about Fredi. There is no way that Martinez shouldn’t have a spot in the bullpen. If anything, I could see a waiver justification in sending Gearrin down for the start of the season and keeping Vavaro up.
Oh, and Martinez is out of options so we definitely lose him if he isn’t on the 25 man roster.
I definitely consider this a bit of DOB substituting his opinion for news.
Also, this would ultimately be Frank Wren’s call, though he may listen to Fredi. and A) I don’t think DOB has the slightest idea what FW is thinking and B) that’s definitely not a FW type move.
you sure it wasn’t Doug O’Brian?
That’s good. I was starting to get concerned about Uggla leading MLB in K’s this Spring with a .207/.281/.259 line, 3 BB’s, and 1 HR. Phew!
That is not indicative at all of how Uggla will play this year.
It’s always possible he will be much, much worse.
He’s been working on changing his timing on his toe tap. That sort of major change is going to come with a LOT of adjustment time.
Let’s wait until June before we start making grand proclamations about player performance shall we?
This ain’t the AJC blog.
While I agree that Spring Training stats should not be used as gospel for a season prediction, Uggla has given us 2 seasons of declining stats on which to measure. Usually a solid spring after a bad season or two would be at the least an indicator that he’s figured it out. Also – if we’re not to use spring training stats as an indicator due to inferior pitching… what does that say about Uggla? That he is playing to the level of his competition? I hope the “toe tap” excuse is real. Trust me. There’s nothing I would want more than our #7 or #8 hitter hitting 30 hrs and driving in 90 rbi’s. I just don’t see it. I’m taking this spring training, combining it with 2 previous seasons, and adding the declining age factor, and coming up with a salary anchor not pulling his weight. At this point I’d be happy with 20 hr’s and leading the league in BB’s again.
I know this opinion will be somewhat unpopular here but Gattis really impresses me. I went to a few Spring Training games and have watched a few on TV and in the process saw Gattis hit. Every time he absolutely SMOKED the ball! I get SSS but I don’t think you should use it as an argument to devalue what a player has done in Spring Training. If 2 players are battling for the same role on a roster(ie bench bat), the only thing we can go off in judging their performance is their previous stats and the SSS of Spring Training. Thus, if the players in question don’t have Major League stats to use, what can we use but their Minor League numbers and their Spring Training stats(which while small are still going to surpass 50+ AB for any viable player with both getting approximately the same amount. Not 5 or 10)? With this stated, the fact that Evan Gattis hit at every minor league level(I know age but he still has to have the talent and the Braves think he does!) and is raking in Spring Training, I firmly believe he should make the roster as a right handed bench bat and back-up catcher behind Laird til Mac returns! In other news, Uggla just looks UGGLY!
I agree Phillip. He’s at least earn the chance to prove himself. I think he can hit MLB pitching.
I really think the Braves have to put Gattis on the roster and give him a chance to prove himself against MLB pitching. With this more than likely being McCann’s last year in a Braves uniform and Bethancourt’s bat questionable at best Gattis may be the Braves best option as a starting catcher for 2014. I know the concerns about Gattis’ defense but it’s better than I expected. He receives the ball well but struggles getting down quickly enough to block pitches in the dirt. The other night when he was catching Jordan Walden he was having a really tough time with that.
+1 on this. He’s a huge dude. Struggling to block balls and slow footwork are part of the tradeoff when you put a huge dude behind the dish (see Piazza, Mike).
On a side note, somebody tell Gattis that at his level he rates his own set of catching gear. That includes customization (length of straps) and modern buckles. With his lack of grace back there and all the unstrapped/hanging adjustment bands on the shinguards he looks like he’s using the slightly moldy little league catching gear from the equipment bag…
Well considering that he’s never played in the majors he probably can’t get much better equipment than minor league quality.
I too would like to see Gattis make the bench over Pagnozzi. While Pagnozzi is a known quantity (good defender, no bat), Laird is a solid defender and wont need a defensive replacement much. While it’s still unknown how well Gattis would do against MLB pitchers, it’s reasonable to assume it will be better than Pagnozzi, perhaps by a lot. Not to mention Gattis can play the corner OF spots and PH. I don’t think it would be a stretch to see him get 10-15 ABs a week role playing backup C/OF and PHer.
Lastly, the difference between Gattis or whoever else for the last bench spot for all of two weeks is so minute, you might as well go with the more exiciting/high reward option.
I’m of the opinion that Gattis needs to be getting all the MLB at bats he can, starting this year. Either he’ll hit and become an important piece on this team or he won’t be able to hit major league pitchers. But the guy is 26, and we need to find out now just what he is. Is he a solid major league hitter, or a physically dominant minor league talent? If it’s the former, it would be foolish to wait to find out.
Absolutely. Am I alone, though, in worrying that if he makes the team as Laird’s backup that he may never get between the lines? Fredi has shown a serious anti-backup catcher using for anything other than debilitating injury to primary catcher bias.
It makes me want to scream when he doesn’t seem to care about wasting one game by utilizing non-optimal match ups or substitutions (key indicator: tipping of the cap during post game interviews) but absolutely refuses to even consider utilizing the backup catcher to pinch hit in the 7th+ inning to guard against the .00000001% possibility that a single game could be lost to an injury to the catcher after said pinch hit. Seriously – if that happens, it’s 1 game and you get the AAA or AA guy on the plane to meet you for tomorrow’s game. Why is this math so cosmic?
Although I love Fredi bashing as much as the next guy, this definitely falls into the “baseball wisdom that is based on guts and not empirical data” that permeates baseball. He’s not the only manager who’s backup catcher has to be pried from his cold, dead hands.
With all the $ spent by teams you would think that there would be a much more NFL approach to hiring coaches – current thinking required.
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I just ran some team stats just because I was curious how the K rate was going. Found the individual stats over at Baseball Reference and kept the starters (and Reed Johnson and Gattis). 119 Ks in 581 at bats so around 20%, which I guess is kind of what I expected. Obviously can’t put any real stock in it but like I say I was curious and figured I’d share with you guys.
I do have to chuckle that Simmons has an OPS of 1.039 currently.