Wednesday Post
September 30, 2009 at 1:31 pm by Capitol Avenue Club under Atlanta Braves, Daily Post, Farm System
Update 3:45 PM
I’ve read two articles that have been very good and I have to link to them here:
End Update
With a Braves loss and a Rockies win last night, the Rockies’ magic number is now 3. By the same token, the Braves’ elimination number is 3. That is–the total number of Rockies wins and Braves losses for the rest of the year can’t equal 3 for the Braves to make the post-season or play game 163 to get to the post-season. In fact, here’s a chart of what has to happen in order to get to the post-season:
| To Tie After 162 | |
| Atlanta | Colorado |
| N/A | 5-0 |
| N/A | 4-1 |
| N/A | 3-2 |
| 5-0 | 2-3 |
| 4-1 | 1-4 |
| 3-2 | 0-5 |
| 2-3 | N/A |
| 1-4 | N/A |
| 0-5 | N/A |
| To Lead After 162 | |
| Atlanta | Colorado |
| N/A | 5-0 |
| N/A | 4-1 |
| N/A | 3-2 |
| N/A | 2-3 |
| 5-0 | 1-4 |
| 4-1 | 0-5 |
| 3-2 | N/A |
| 2-3 | N/A |
| 1-4 | N/A |
| 0-5 | N/A |
Things aren’t looking too rosy, though hope endures. The position the Braves are in is still the same. They still have to keep winning and hope the Rockies stumble. The urgency of the matter is much greater, though. The good news is the pitching match-ups seem favorable the rest of the way. It’ll be Javier Vazquez vs. Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Hanson vs. Garrett Mock, Derek Lowe vs. Livan Hernandez (again, thank god), Jair Jurrjens vs. Ross Detwiler, and Tim Hudson vs. J.D. Martin. If the Braves can force a 1-game playoff, Javier Vazquez would face Jason Hammel (or Aaron Cook on short rest). Per the new rules, the Braves would host the 1-game playoff since they tied the season series and own the better record in their division.
The Rockies will throw Jason Hammel vs. Jeff Suppan tonight, Aaron Cook vs. Manny Parra tomorrow, Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Randy Wolf on Friday, Jorge De La Rosa vs. Clayton Kershaw on Saturday, and Jason Marquis vs. Hiroki Kuroda on Sunday. The Dodgers have the on-paper advantage in every game of the series if they decide they want to play to win. Whether they do or not is to be seen.
Like I said, all you can do is win and hope. And try to make this flip up-side down.
Standings
| Team: | W | L | GB | Diff |
| Colorado | 89 | 68 | – | +84 |
| Atlanta | 86 | 71 | 3.0 | +102 |
Pretty much a 2-horse race at this point. Man, 2.0 out looks a lot better than 3.0 out. And 1.0 out would look even better. Perhaps the Braves will be 2.0 out by tonight. I don’t think they’ll lose another game. You’d really like to get it to 2.0 games heading into the Nationals series. 2.0 out with 4 left is a much better position than 3.0 out with 4 left.
Game Today
Nolasco has a 5.17 ERA in the month of September and a career 5.o2 ERA in 11 games (10 starts) against the Braves. Javier Vazquez has a 1.93 ERA in September, but a 5.88 ERA against the Marlins this year. Hopefully he gets back on track. The Marlins match-up well with Vazquez because they’re aggressive hitters and Vazquez lives in the zone. A lot of Braves hitters have high career OPS’s against Nolasco. Chipper Jones (1.649), Brian McCann (1.224), Yunel Escobar (1.158), Matt Diaz (1.264), Martin Prado (1.000), Greg Norton (1.400), Gregor Blanco (1.000), and Ryan Church (.939).
Nolasco’s best pitch is his slider (12.2 RAA). With that, we’ll do stat of the day.
Stat of the Day
wSL. How well the starting 8 hit the slider.
| Player Name: | wSL |
| Yunel Escobar | 4.1 |
| Matt Diaz | 3.0 |
| Chipper Jones | 1.6 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.5 |
| Brian McCann | -4.0 |
| Nate McLouth | -5.1 |
| Martin Prado | -5.2 |
| Garret Anderson | -13.9 |
Nolasco’s pitch is more of a cutter/slider than a true slider anyway, so I don’t feel like this has much predictive value. I know the Braves have taken care of Nolasco and I expect them to continue today.
Tentative Top 10
I’ve started ranking the prospects and I’ve come up with my tentative top-10 list. There’s a good chance something changes before I come out with my top 40. But here’s what I’ve got at the moment.
1. Jason Heyward
2. Julio Teheran
3. Freddie Freeman
4. Randall Delgado
5. Brett DeVall
6. Craig Kimbrel
7. Cole Rohrbough
8. J. J. Hoover
9. Tyler Stovall
10. Adam Milligan
Before you ask, Mike Minor would be number 11 and Zeke Spruill would be number 12. That’s all I’ve got so far. I miss minor league baseball.
Rafael Soriano 100 Strikeout Watch
Rafael Soriano is now at 96 strikeouts. He wasn’t used tonight so he should be available tomorrow night. Now, only 4 away, it seems likely that Soriano will reach the century mark.
Other “races” include:
- Brian McCann 100-RBI watch.
- Peter Moylan home-run watch. Peter Moylan has broken the Braves single-season appearances record and is yet to allow a home run. If he finishes the season without allowing a home run, he’ll hold the record for most appearances in a season without allowing a home-run.
- Javier Vazquez xFIP watch. He’s at 2.93 and Lincecum is at 2.94. Will Vazquez finish the season leading the league in xFIP?
- Chipper 20-homer watch. If Chipper hits 2 more homers (I hope he hits 5 more) over the final 5 games, he’ll become the 1st player in MLB history to hit 20 or more home runs every year for the first 15 years of an MLB career*. Chipper’s currently tied with Eddie Matthews with 14.
*Hank Aaron hit 20 or more home runs for an astonishing twenty years, but he only hit 13 home runs in 509 PA’s his rookie year, so he doesn’t qualify for this list. Hank Aaron is tied with many at the bottom of the list with zero.
Braves MVP
I’ve refrained from discussing this topic in this space for awhile now. I’ve wanted to bring it up for a month, but figured it’d be better to see them finish the season. I don’t suppose a player’s value tremendously dips or skyrockets over the final 5 games, so I guess it’s appropriate to bring it up here. Here’s a list of everyone who could possibly be considered team MVP:
- Brian McCann
- Yunel Escobar
- Martin Prado
- Chipper Jones
- Matt Diaz
- Javier Vazquez
- Jair Jurrjens
- Rafael Soriano
- Peter Moylan
I’ll list their WAR:
| Player Name | WAR |
| Javier Vazquez | 6.5 |
| Brian McCann | 4.3 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 3.9 |
| Yunel Escobar | 3.7 |
| Chipper Jones | 2.8 |
| Martin Prado | 2.7 |
| Matt Diaz | 2.2 |
| Rafael Soriano | 1.9 |
| Peter Moylan | 1.5 |
Vazquez is clearly the most valuable pitcher. Whether or not Yunel or McCann has been more valuable is debatable. Fangraphs doesn’t know how to handle Catcher’s defense so it just doesn’t include it. It’s admirable that they’ll admit they don’t know what to do, but ignoring it all together is a lousy solution. No doubt McCann’s WAR would suffer if his defensive performance were included. Secondly, UZR rates Yunel worse than he performs. +/- has Yunel at +10 runs while UZR has him at merely average. That’s a full win right there.
Apart from Vazquez, McCann, and Yunel, there isn’t another suitable candidate. Matt Diaz and Martin Prado haven’t played enough. Relievers don’t pitch enough innings to have major impact. And Chipper and Jurrjens haven’t been good enough.
There are arguments that a starting pitcher shouldn’t be a MVP because he only participates in ~20% of the games. It’s not a bad argument. And if you buy into that, the decision is, in my eye, is between Yunel and McCann.
That’s all I got.
We need a miracle.
Go Braves!
And Brewers!
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Just found your blog, linked from Neyer, nice work here.
You don’t think Rohrbough played himself out of the top 10? I don’t know what the scouts say.
Where would you rank Christian Bethancourt?
Hey, Hizouse, glad you like it.
Rohrbough certainly had a disappointing season. It seemed like every time I checked his box he was getting roughed up. He did seemingly take a step backwards this season. Scouts are still very impressed, though. It’s hard not to be with a live-armed lefty with a plus curveball.
Rohrbough has had off-field issues, especially last year and this year. He’s the father of a young child that he hardly ever gets to see in the season due to his baseball commitment. He’s reportedly been dealing with depression because of this. It’s also worth note that he took a step forward in August/September and turned in a few strong outings.
Given his lackluster performance for the second year in a row, many people would argue he should be out of the top-10. I considered the scouting reports and the off-field issues, giving him the benefit of the doubt for the 2nd straight year. If he repeats 2009′s performance next year, he’ll most likely be not only off the top-10, but off the prospect map all together.
I mention in the post that the list is subject to change. I’m waiting to see what the experts say about Christian Betancourt’s season, but he’s certainly a candidate to jump right into the top-10, if not the top-5.
Betancourt was signed as an international free agent last year at the age of 16. He hit .267/.328/.371 in 131 PA’s in the Dominican Summer League that season. This year, he hit .277/.342/.446 in 187 PA’s combined between the Gulf Coast League and Appalachian League. Despite his age (17), he showed a surprising amount of polish. For instance, his ISO was .169 and his BB rate was 9.1% (on the way to posting a 17-to-38 walk-to-strikeout ratio). He’s described as a “line-drive hitter with potential to hit for power”. He started adding the power this year, belting 4 HR and 14 2B (1 3B). He also stole 8 bases and was caught only once, though I imagine that will disappear from his game as he ages and moves through the system.
Right now, I’d say Betancourt is penciled in the top-15, but I’ll have to see what the scouts and experts think. If their reviews are overwhelmingly positive, he’ll definitely make the top-10.
Here are the most successful Marlins vs. Vazquez and their career OPS against him:
Ross Gload (1.172), Jeremy Hermida (1.000), Hanley Ramirez (.900), Ronny Paulino (1.000), Cody Ross (.958), Cameron Maybin (1.000), and Brett Carrol (1.000)
tough night last night for you guys–was pulling for you-will still be hoping.
great post as usual.
We need to do the impossible, a miracle takes a much longer time.
Braves MVP is either Prado, Escobar, or Vasquez…
No McCann, its not even close.
all i can say is: Can anyone get Chris Coghlan out?? I was cursing that guy way too much for a rookie… you think he is a lock for rookie of the year?
I’m almost afraid to see what you’re gonna have to say about matt diaz tomorrow–but i some how doubt it will resemble cox’s ‘ he’s the best base runner on the team”