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A Response to Mark Bradley Concerning Kelly Johnson
By Capitol Avenue Club | October 7, 2009
Mark Bradley comments on his own blog the following:
I read the Cox quote [stating the organization just can't give up on Kelly Johnson], too. And I said to myself, “Why can’t they give up on Kelly?”
I’ve composed a letter of response to this comment.
Dear Mark Bradley,
Why can’t the Braves give up on Kelly Johnson? Because the organization isn’t stupid enough to give up on a player just because of frustration. Let me be clear, Kelly Johnson is a rather frustrating player. Though his range is above-average, he frequently makes errors–usually at inopportune and highly visible times. That’s frustrating. He’s also been an inexplicably streaky player. I don’t believe previous streaky-ness indicates future streaky-ness, I think it’s something that happens because of entropy, randomness, and luck, but it’s still frustrating.
Like I said though, his defensive deficiencies stem from his errors, not his range. With a little more work and experience, there’s no reason to think he’s incapable of eliminating (or minimizing) them from his game and becoming an above-average defensive 2B. And even if he doesn’t, he’s a close-to-average defender at 2B right now. His +/- totals at 2B:
2007 … 0
2008 … -1
2009 … -2
And then there’s his bat. The bat has shown potential to be, and has been in 2007 and 2008, an above-average one. In 2007 he hit .276/.375/.457/.831 (117 OPS+) with 16 HR, 10 3B, and 26 2B. He scored more runs (91) than he drove in (68). He walked 79(!) times and struck out 117. In 2008, he hit .287/.349/.446/.795 (108 OPS+) with 12 HR, 6 3B, and 39 2B. Again, he scored more runs (86) than he drove in (69). He walked 52 times and struck out 113.
This season, he’s hit .224/.303/.389/.692 (82 OPS+) with 8 HR, 3 3B, and 20 2B. The percent of the time he hits a home run is 2.3%. It was 2.0% in 2008 and 2.6% in 2007. His ability to hit home runs hasn’t changed at all. The percent of the time he records an extra-base hit in general is 9.0%. It was 9.3% in 2008 and 8.6% in 2007. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has actually improved from 2008 (2.17) to 1.69. His contact rate has improved (19.2% K% in 2007, 18.4% K% in 2008, 15.6% K% in 2009) and his walk rate is up from 2008 (8.5% BB%) to 9.3% BB%. He’s not popping it up on the infield as much as he did in 2007 and 2008 (12%), generating an infield fly ball only 11% of the time. So what’s changed that’s leading to his terrible results in 2009?
Well, there are two things at play here. First of all, he’s not hit as many line drives in 2009 as he has in his career. Line Drives turn into hits a lot more frequently than ground balls or fly balls do. His career average LD% is 17%. That figure is down to 14%. Now, the ability to hit a line drive is a skill, but a 3% difference over 346 PA’s isn’t statistically significant. That is–the best explanation for this change is that nothing has fundamentally changed and random fluctuations are responsible for the difference in results. Still, this is enough to count for merely two or three points on his batting average. And, likewise, his OBP and SLG%. Considering the fact that his fundamental skills are largely unchanged, something else is obviously going on.
The answer is luck. Kelly Johnson has gotten extremely unlucky this season and it has nothing to do with his input. For instance, his BABIP–something he can’t control–is down from his career mark of .311 to .247. If a few more ground balls find holes (something that happens because of luck, not a hitter’s skill), a few more fly balls drop (same explanation) and a few more line-drives aren’t right at somebody, his results look a whole lot rosier. The difference between a .224 hitter and a .300 hitter is roughly one hit every three games. It’s very likely that Kelly Johnson has simply fallen on some hard luck.
In fact, when you plug in Kelly’s stats to this Component Batting Average Calculator (303 AB’s, 82% Contact Rate, 6.1% HR/FB, 52% FB%, and .247 BABIP), it predicts a .222 batting average–just two points off of his actual 2009 batting average–and 8 HR, as he’s hit. Adjust Kelly’s .247 BABIP to his career average of .311 and you’ve got yourself at a .273 hitter. The difference is just luck. .273/.352/.438/.790 is Kelly’s luck-adjusted line, and that’s assuming that all of the hits on balls in play he was “robbed of” turn out to be singles. That .790 OPS is 48 points higher than the league average 2B has produced in 2009. His .795 OPS was 51 points higher than the league average for 2B in 2008 and his .831 OPS was 72 points higher than the league average for 2B in 2007. No matter what which way you slice it, Kelly’s bat is going to play above-average at 2B with any luck at all.
So you’ve got a left-handed hitting middle infielder who plays average defense, runs the bases well, posts excellent walk rates, shows some pop, and posts fairly good contact rates. And you have a hard time wondering why professional talent evaluators don’t want to give up on him? I think they’d be crazy to get rid of Kelly Johnson.
I don’t buy the “he’s not worth the money” argument either. Kelly Johnson’s 0.6 WAR this season make him only slightly less valuable than his contract ~$285,000 (something that has never happened in his MLB career, he’s always been significantly more valuable than his contract) and he’s been worth, on average over the last 4 years, $7.65 million. Kelly Johnson is an immensely valuable commodity, no matter how much your emotions of frustration deceive you.
One final point. After Kelly Johnson hit .214/.288/.359 in 263 PA’s through July 2 (he was placed on the DL shortly thereafter), he hit .261/.358/.493/.851 in 83 PA’s from July 23 (his return from the DL) to the end of the season. Things are trending upwards and Kelly has turned it around. Wherever he plays next year, he’s going to be a very good 2B. I just hope the Braves don’t look past the talent and into the frustration and end up non-tendering him. He’s too valuable and there’s too much talent and potential to let get away. Especially if his on-field production is going to net you more than you’re paying him. Which it, in all likelihood, will.
Sincerely,
-A Mark Bradley and Kelly Johnson Fan
Topics: Atlanta Braves | 15 Comments »
October 7th, 2009 at 12:25 PM
I like Kelly too. I’m just having a hard time figuring out where to play him. The problem is everybody KNOWS we don’t have a spot for him, so his trade value goes down unless we can get multiple teams involved in a bidding war for him.
Maybe we should consider trading “high” on Prado and keeping KJ?
October 7th, 2009 at 12:50 PM
You’re absolutely right about Kelly. It’s a tough situation. I would love to keep both Prado and Kelly. I really can’t see Prado getting traded.
The Braves are a wierd team. There is an unusual number of valuable players who can play multiple positions: Infante, Prado, Johnson, Diaz, Church.
October 7th, 2009 at 1:08 PM
Pretty much everyone thinks that KJ is done as a Brave. Considering the sources, Bowman and O’Brian, I have to console myself to that fate as well. I have to say that .247 BAPIP was well earned. In my limited observation of his play, all I saw were weak grounders and popups to the short part of the outfield during his PAs.
I want to keep him too. I could see a Prado, Escobar, Johnson, Chipper infield being productive offensively and defensively too. But Chipper won’t move (I don’t blame him) and Prado started coming on late to vastly improve his second half production. Of course the funny thing is that while KJ was a very good player in 2007 and 2008, Jeff Francoeur was an ok player in 2007 and a terrible one in 2008 yet Johnson won’t get the 3rd and 4th chances Frenchy got. Sucks for KJ that there are two other players that can play his position already on the team.
Poster Roger has an intriguing idea. Of course since it is innovative and out of the box it won’t happen. But offering up Prado in a package would probably get you more than a devalued KJ and you still have Infante as insurance just in case Johnson wasn’t unlucky after all but establishing a lower level of performance.
I do disagree with the Chop Talk host though. I cannot see the team just non tendering KJ like they did Mark DeRosa a few years back.
October 7th, 2009 at 2:33 PM
Roger,
My contention is that even if Kelly isn’t a starter, he’s more valuable on our bench making whatever he will in Arbitration than off the team for nothing.
Chris in Boston,
Absolutely.
Johnny,
I have to disagree with you on the BABIP being earned. A little bit of it is (accounted for by his drop in LD%), but he’s hitting fewer infield flys than he did in 2007 and 2008. Another metric called PrOPS, developed by JC Bradbury that estimates luck-removed OPS without the help of BABIP (using other hit-luck methods) suggests his OPS would be .754 all luck removed. His results aren’t indicative of his performance this season and his bat is above-average at 2B.
October 7th, 2009 at 4:02 PM
Hey,
I just linked to this in a comment on a thread in Talking Chop. Great explanation of why we should hang on to Kelly!
I also agree that if nothing else, he would be a valuable bench player / pitch-hitter.
October 7th, 2009 at 4:27 PM
Oh my goodness…I think I am in love! NICE WRITE-UP!!!
October 7th, 2009 at 4:57 PM
Thanks, folks. I appreciate it.
October 8th, 2009 at 6:59 PM
Kelly Johnson and Javier Vasquez have to be traded. Unless Javy voids his contract and signs for, oh, I don’t know, say nothing, he has to go.
He can be traded for a big bat or a dominant closer, and we can use the money to sign the other need.
KJ seems to be a perfect fit for The Cubs or the Twins.
October 8th, 2009 at 7:07 PM
If Cards don’t resign DeRosa (which they probably won’t), I like KJ and Church for Skip. We get a good, er GREAT, leadoff hitter who can play the outfield. Move Nate down the order. And the Cardinals get two good lefty hitters, to perhaps come off the bench, etc.
October 8th, 2009 at 7:08 PM
Ok,
Maybe not great, but good…
October 8th, 2009 at 8:28 PM
I don’t think the Cardinals even consider moving Skip.
October 8th, 2009 at 10:25 PM
Where do we play him? Second. We let Prado either be a utility guy, where he’s really better, or play first if we can’t bring back LaRoche. His defense is far superior there anyway, given that it’s atrocious at second.
October 8th, 2009 at 11:04 PM
I think if you keep Kelly Johnson he starts the year on the bench. That’s not to say he won’t play. Give him a few starts at a corner OF, a few at 2nd when Prado needs a break, a few at 2nd when the team’s regular 1B (whoever that may be) needs rest with Prado moving to 1st, a few at 2nd when Chipper needs a break with Prado moving to 3rd, pinch hitting, pinch running, late-innings defensive substitutions, etc.. Then, you see how it goes and evaluate from there.
October 9th, 2009 at 12:28 AM
+$2.85M is far to much for a bench player for just a bench player…
October 9th, 2009 at 12:55 AM
Not if he’s giving you more on-field value than his salary. Which he likely would, even in a bench role.